Pubdate: Mon, 18 Sep 2000
Source: Jane's Defence Weekly
Copyright: Jane's Information Group Limited 2000
Contact:  1340 Braddock Place, Suite 300, Alexandria, VA 22314-1651 USA
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CLINTON'S DRUGS WAR PLEDGE RAISES 'VIETNAMISATION' FEARS

LATE in August, President Bill Clinton made a one-day visit to Cartagena in 
Colombia to pledge political and financial support for that country's 
anti-drug effort. The agreed $1.3 billion in military aid is limited to the 
drug fight and not directed toward ending the Colombian government's 
decades-long battle with rebel groups. Clinton said: "This is not Vietnam, 
nor is it Yankee imperialism."

He was reacting to critics at home and in and around Colombia who fear the 
consequences of a growing fight to stop the Colombian drug traffickers, who 
supply 90 per cent of the cocaine and most of the heroin that enters the 
United States.

American intelligence estimates say that Colombia produced 520 metric tons 
of cocaine last year, three times what the CIA had previously calculated, 
and its opium-poppy cultivation jumped 23 per cent in 1999.

Clinton said the US was helping Colombia with its $7.5 billion five-year 
programme to destroy much of its drug crop, root out traffickers, and 
rebuild its judiciary and other government operations. A proportion of the 
funding is also coming from Europe and international agencies.

He said continued support would require the government in the capital 
Bogota to break its ties with paramilitary groups and adhere to strict 
human rights standards.

Clinton also urged Colombia's neighbours to stand by it in its struggle 
against the drug trade, even if they suffer from an overflow of refugees, 
coca growers and guerrillas. Some of those neighbours are worried about the 
American attack helicopters, including 18 modern Blackhawks.

Guaranteed revenue Colombian president Andres Pastrana is trying to promote 
economic recovery, enhance national security, make peace and strengthen 
institutions of both the state and civil society in a country where a 
50-year insurgency has grown remarkably in recent days, amid depression and 
the mushrooming narco-traffic. The largest and oldest Marxist insurgency 
group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), enjoys guaranteed 
revenue by protecting and taxing the narcotics industry. A smaller group, 
the National Liberation Army (ELN), funds operations by kidnapping people 
for ransom.

FARC is the most powerful guerrilla group in Latin America. It has 17,000 
members and is dedicated to the violent overthrow of Pastrana's government 
and is now openly defying the US. FARC leaders say they will continue to 
use money from illicit drugs to finance their escalating war. They claim 
that, given the steady build-up of US military might in Colombia, it is 
only a matter of time before they train their gunsights on US troops.

Andres Paris, spokesman for the FARC leadership, said: "This confrontation 
is inevitable, but we are making efforts to avoid it."

In August, to coincide with approval in Washington of the aid package for 
Colombia, the FARC staged high-profile attacks on towns across the country. 
These defy a peace process that has yielded only limited progress since 
Pastrana initiated it 19 months ago.

While in Colombia, Clinton did his best to dispel the notion that the US is 
about to slip into the morass of another jungle war such as El Salvador, or 
worse, Vietnam. But the fact is that half of Colombia's territory is now 
controlled by the Marxist guerrillas in league with coca growers and drug 
traffickers.

Guerilla mode Critics say drugs are so lucrative that they cannot be easily 
separated from a tangle of risks that will face any growing American 
involvement in Colombia.

James Jones, who served from 1997 to 1999 as a regional adviser to the 
United Nations International Drug Control Programme in Colombia, Peru and 
Bolivia, said: "US officials are disingenuous when they say we are fighting 
drugs, not insurgents. The distinction is illusory. There is only one 
battlefield. The aid will not only ratchet up the violence, it may well 
derail the ongoing peace process.

"The aid package, with its helicopters and improved surveillance, is more 
likely to push FARC into its guerrilla mode than to bring it to the peace 
table. It could also inspire the rebels to launch an urban campaign of 
sabotage and assassination. If so, right-wing militias would probably 
retaliate with increased assaults on the civilian rural population that 
they think supports the FARC. An already dirty war could get a whole lot 
dirtier."

Ralph Peters, a retired US Army officer, believes the US is setting a trap 
for itself. He said: "The Clinton administration's proposed security aid is 
a substitute for strategy. Our policy is essentially to send a cheque and 
cross our fingers. There is no evidence that the White House and the 
Pentagon have engaged in conceptual thinking about Colombia and the 
troubled region around it. As with the former Yugoslavia, US civilian and 
military leaders are declining to think the problem through, fearing what 
serious analysis might reveal."

He went on: "The lesson of Vietnam is that no amount of US largess or 
American might can save a government unable to save itself."

Human rights Some observers fear that the likeliest outcome in Colombia is 
stalemate - complete with corrupt officials, black marketeers, 
narco-traffickers and the broad assortment of questionable elements who 
profit from disorder. The unwanted result of US aid, it is feared, could be 
to strengthen the current system just enough to preserve all of its worst 
characteristics.

Human rights, religious and union groups have sharply criticised the 
Colombian military's human rights performance and announced their 
disapproval of the aid package, in that it includes nothing to combat 
right-wing paramilitary groups. These, they claim, are allied with the 
military and are also heavily involved in drugs trafficking and 
wide-ranging atrocities against civilians.

The Colombian president is not popular. Unemployment stands at 20 per cent 
and the country is enduring its worst recession in 70 years. According to a 
Human Rights Watch report in February, the Colombian army is still fighting 
guerrillas and Clinton aides have privately admitted that it will be 
impossible to separate the two in future battles.

The most important support the guerrillas have, say most analysts, is a 
ready source of funds from drug protection money estimated at several 
hundred million dollars a year. That is enough to keep them well equipped, 
well fed, and unenthusiastic about making peace.

Critics of the aid package say it is designed in Washington to meet 
domestic US concerns and has little relevance to what is happening in Colombia.

"There is no way to sustain the distinction between drug traffickers and 
guerrillas in southern Colombia," according to Bruce Bagley, a professor of 
international studies at the University of Miami. "US policy will break 
down on the first day," he said.

But Colombian officials disagree. They say the plan will ultimately destroy 
the guerrillas' capacity to make war. General Fernando Tapias, commander of 
the armed forces, said: "It's not a matter of Marxist philosophy anymore; 
the guerrillas are now in the fight for the money. The plan for peace will 
not work without a decisive fight against drugs."

Disastrous consequences Those pushing for a strong US programme assert that 
failing to counter insurgencies and curb the drug trade now will lead to 
Colombia's collapse, with disastrous consequences for the stability of its 
neighbours, the cause of Latin American democracy, and the control of drugs.

The White House argues that the Pastrana administration has done more than 
its predecessors to seek a peaceful settlement with insurgent groups, to 
clean up the armed forces and police, and to strengthen civilian authority.

Professor Abraham Lowenthal, of the University of Southern California, 
said: "The strongest case for approving the requested Colombian 
appropriation rests on the argument that there are some real, if limited, 
prospects that the Pastrana government could modestly advance its approach 
if it had US assistance.

"The fact that the US has the resources does not mean it has the right 
answers. Washington should make security and economic assistance available 
while focusing on how to minimise the risks of more direct US military 
involvement," he said.

The day after Clinton's visits to Cartegena, an unprecedented meeting of 
South American presidents took place in Brazil. The leaders expressed their 
deep concerns about the possible 'Vietnamisation' of Colombia's civil war 
and how it might affect them.

Neighbours Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela have grown increasingly 
vocal in expressing worries that they will become victims of spillover from 
the Colombian government's efforts to cripple rebel forces. They are 
shoring up their borders against refugees and rebels seeking safe haven, 
saying they do not want to become new centres of drug trafficking and 
production.

Already there have been reports of guerrilla incursions into Venezuela, 
Panama and Ecuador, as well as sightings of coca and poppy plantations in 
Peru operated by Colombians.

But at the summit their rhetoric softened and they agreed to send Colombia 
a message of solidarity.
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MAP posted-by: Keith Brilhart