Pubdate: Sun, 15 Oct 2000
Source: New York Times (NY)
Copyright: 2000 The New York Times Company
Contact:  229 West 43rd Street, New York, NY 10036
Fax: (212) 556-3622
Website: http://www.nytimes.com/
Forum: http://forums.nytimes.com/comment/
Author: Fox Butterfield

CRIME RATES FALL AGAIN, BUT DECLINE MAY SLOW

Crime in the United States fell again in 1999, the eighth consecutive 
decline, with the murder rate dropping to 5.7 per 100,000, its lowest level 
since 1966, according to an annual report by the Federal Bureau of 
Investigation being released today.

But experts cautioned that the decline may be nearing an end because murder 
rates in the nation's largest cities showed the smallest decrease in 1999, 
and it was these large cities, of more than one million in population, that 
had led the increase in murder in the late 1980's, during the crack cocaine 
epidemic, and then also led the drop during the 1990's.

While cities of more than one million people had a decline of only 1.8 
percent in murder last year, cities of 500,000 to one million people had a 
decrease of 2.1 percent. Cities with 250,000 to 500,000 people had a 
decrease of 6.8 percent, and cities with 100,000 to 250,000 people saw a 
decrease of 9.4 percent: the smaller the cities, the larger the decline.

"Big cities have become victims of their own success," said James Alan Fox, 
a professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University. "They led the 
drop, and therefore they are reaching bottom first."

"They are harbingers of what we may see shortly, which is a national 
leveling off in crime trends," said Professor Fox. "All good things must 
come to an end, and the great 90's crime drop may be just that, a 90's 
phenomenon. The millennium may be a new story."

The report is the F.B.I.'s annual Uniform Crime Report, which is compiled 
from police arrest data forwarded to the agency. Over all, the report said, 
serious crime was down 7 percent in 1999, compared with 1998, with violent 
and property crime down by 7 percent.

The F.B.I. measures violent crimes of murder, robbery, assault and rape, 
and property crimes of burglary, auto theft, larceny and arson. The report 
does not include figures on drug crimes, because they are considered to be 
victimless and are hard to measure.

The largest drop was recorded for burglary, which fell 10 percent. Burglary 
has been declining since 1980, as criminals have turned to quicker crimes 
like robbery, and people have installed more burglar alarms. As a result, 
the burglary rate in the United States is now well below that of many 
Western European countries.

Crime rates continued a long-term pattern of large regional disparities, 
the report showed. The highest murder rate, for example, was in the South, 
with a rate of 6.9 per 100,000, compared with the West, with a rate of 5.5 
per 100,000, the Midwest, with 5.3 per 100,000, and the Northeast with 4.1 
per 100,000.

The state with the highest murder rate was Louisiana, at 10.7 per 100,000, 
while the states with the lowest were New Hampshire and Iowa, each with 1.5 
per 100,000.
- ---
MAP posted-by: Terry Liittschwager