Pubdate: Thu, 29 Jun 2000
Source: San Diego Union Tribune (CA)
Copyright: 2000 Union-Tribune Publishing Co.
Contact:  PO Box 120191, San Diego, CA, 92112-0191
Fax: (619) 293-1440
Website: http://www.uniontrib.com/
Forum: http://www.uniontrib.com/cgi-bin/WebX
Author: John Marelius, Staff Writer

VOTERS ARE SPLIT OVER MEASURES

Vouchers, Bond Issues Are On The Ballot Again

FIELD POLL California voters are divided over the merits of two 
education-related measures that will be on the November ballot and strongly 
favor an initiative that would require treatment programs rather than 
prison for many drug offenders.

A Field Poll shows that Californians likely to cast ballots in the Nov. 7 
election slightly favor a proposition that would lower the threshold for 
approval of school bond issues from two-thirds to 55 percent.

After being read a summary of the proposition, 45 percent of those polled 
said they would vote yes, and 41 percent said they would vote no. The lead 
is statistically insignificant because it is within the poll's margin of 
error of 5.8 percentage points.

Voters were evenly divided at 39 percent on each side over a plan to give 
parents tax vouchers of $4,000 to send their children to public or private 
school.

Such early polling numbers would normally be bad news for proponents of the 
measures. Voters typically have a more favorable first impression of a 
proposition than they do as the campaign progresses and the often 
better-financed "no" campaigns swing into action.

This time, however, the "yes" campaigns are expected to be more than able 
to hold their own financially.

The school bond initiative has the bipartisan backing of Democratic Gov. 
Gray Davis and former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson along with the state's 
education establishment.

As for the voucher initiative, Tim Draper, the Silicon Valley venture 
capitalist who sponsored it, says he is prepared to spend $20 million to 
sell it to voters.

Both of these issues have been around the electoral track before. The most 
recent attempt to lower the percentage for approving school bond issues to 
a simple majority was narrowly defeated in the March primary election. 
Sponsors hope voters will be more receptive to the 55 percent compromise.

The first school voucher initiative was overwhelmingly rejected in a 1993 
special election. Voters seem to have warmed to the idea somewhat since then.

"I found it interesting that it starts out even because that does represent 
a significant change, an improvement, actually, in voter opinion of 
vouchers compared to the first measure seven years ago," said Mark 
DiCamillo, associate director of the Field Poll. He said the first sampling 
of public opinion on the 1993 initiative showed it trailing by 10 
percentage points.

The drug treatment initiative would forbid incarceration of persons 
convicted of relatively minor drug offenses for the first or second time. 
Rather, offenders would be directed to drug treatment programs or put on 
probation.

While the measure might seem to run counter to voters' tough-on-crime 
instincts, 64 percent of those polled said they would vote for the 
initiative coompared to 20 percent who said they would vote against it.

DiCamillo speculated that the description of the proposition which includes 
the estimate that it would save several hundred million dollars in prison 
costs contributed to the support.

The statewide poll was based on telephone interviews conducted June 9 
through June 18 with 642 Californians considered likely to vote in the Nov. 
7 election.
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