Pubdate: Mon, 11 Jun 2001 Source: Chicago Tribune (IL) Copyright: 2001 Chicago Tribune Company Contact: http://www.chicagotribune.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/82 Page: 3 Author: John Diamond, Washington Bureau U.S. MISSES POINT ON COLOMBIA PROBLEM, REPORT SAYS WASHINGTON -- The United States is confronting a deteriorating military situation in Colombia that could present the Bush administration with the choice of retreat or much deeper involvement, according to a study for the Air Force. The report by the Rand Corp. released Friday criticizes the current focus on countering the booming narcotics trade that supplies much of the cocaine and heroin flowing into the U.S. Instead, it says, President Bush should recognize that powerful leftist rebel groups have merged with the narco-traffickers and present an inseparable challenge to the government. "U.S. efforts are focused on strengthening Colombian anti-narcotics capabilities while insisting that U.S. military assistance is not directed against the guerrillas themselves," the Rand study concludes. "U.S. policy, therefore, misses the point that the political and military control that the guerrillas exercise over an ever-larger part of Colombia's territory and population is at the heart of their challenge to the Bogota government's authority." The democratically elected government of Colombian President Andres Pastrana has ceded a large swath of territory to a revolutionary group known as the FARC in southern Colombia, now also the locus of drug production. Pastrana plans to yield a smaller chunk of territory in northern Colombia to another leftist rebel group, the ELN. Colombia last year won U.S. support for "Plan Colombia," a multibillion-dollar effort to shore up civil and military institutions against traffickers and insurgents. Bush has a new approach, the "Andean Regional Initiative," steering more aid to Colombia's neighbors. The Clinton and Bush administrations and Congress have been firmly opposed to even the suggestion that U.S. troops may fight in Colombia. "None of us wants to get into a war. The word 'counterinsurgency' scares the hell out of everybody," Peter Rodman, Bush's nominee for a senior Pentagon policy job, told lawmakers at his Senate confirmation hearing. Up to now, the U.S. has strictly limited the number of military personnel who can go to Colombia in advisory roles to a few hundred. The bulk of aid has been for aircraft, particularly helicopters, and intelligence-gathering equipment. But the Rand report paints a bleak picture of the prospects for improvement in Colombia. Pastrana's government is fighting with a force about the size of El Salvador's at the peak of that country's civil war in the 1980s, yet Colombia is a territory 15 times larger. Guerrilla forces have gained strength in recent years, and U.S.-backed crop-eradication efforts aimed at reducing cocaine production have not prevented a spike in cocaine exports. "If the Pastrana administration falters, either its counternarcotics or counterinsurgency approach, the United States would be confronted with an unpalatable choice," according to Rand. "It could escalate its commitment, to include perhaps an operational role for U.S. forces in Colombia, or scale it down, which could involve some significant costs, including a serious loss of credibility." - --- MAP posted-by: Keith Brilhart