Pubdate: Thu, 28 Jun 2001
Source: Washington Post (DC)
Copyright: 2001 The Washington Post Company
Contact:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/491
Author: Scott Wilson

COLOMBIAN LEADER TESTED BY REBELS, TIME

BOGOTA -- After 2 1/2 years of peace talks, President Andres Pastrana has 
realized his first concrete achievement with Colombia's largest guerrilla 
insurgency: an exchange of sick prisoners. But building on that agreement 
- -- expanding it into an effective truce -- will severely test his power and 
political skill in the 14 months remaining in his presidency.

The maneuvering for next year's presidential election has begun, and the 
focus is now on potential candidates and their stands. This, some analysts 
say, is rendering Pastrana's remaining time in office increasingly 
irrelevant. And hard-line elements within the military are limiting him to 
small, symbolic steps with the guerrilla forces, who in a surprise move 
last week gave the president a boost by promising to free more than 150 
additional captive police officers and soldiers held in jungle camps.

The biggest test now is whether Pastrana can begin talks with Colombia's 
second-largest leftist guerrilla insurgency, the National Liberation Army 
(ELN). The talks are supposed to take place in a northern region that was 
selected last year, but which has since been overrun by the United 
Self-Defense Forces of Colombia, a paramilitary force whose leaders share 
with the military a determination to defeat the leftist guerrillas. The 
military, the chief beneficiary of a $ 1.3 billion U.S. aid package to 
Colombia, has failed to take on the paramilitary group for control of the 
strategic region, leaving it largely out of government hands.

Many diplomats here fear that unless Pastrana secures the area, the ELN and 
the larger leftist guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of 
Colombia (FARC), will conclude that he cannot carry out promises made at 
the peace table. Several diplomats have begun asking the United States to 
take a direct role in the peace process to help keep the military in line, 
saying that Pastrana's pledge to help end Colombia's civil war may be 
doomed if he is unable to start the ELN talks.

"The next months may well determine whether Colombia closes this tentative 
experiment with two peace processes and moves into an extended period of 
increased military activity and terrorism," said a Western diplomat here 
involved in the peace process.

Pastrana has succeeded since his 1998 election in patching up poor 
relations with the United States and bringing international attention to 
bear on Colombia's conflict, which involves the two armed leftist guerrilla 
groups, the growing rightist paramilitary force and the army. The armed 
groups of the left and right all profit greatly from Colombia's drug trade 
and use the income to finance their struggle.

[On Wednesday, Pastrana said he had asked rebel groups to observe a truce 
while Colombia hosts the 12-nation America Cup soccer tournament next 
month, news agencies reported.

[The appeal follows the kidnapping of the Colombian Soccer Federation vice 
president -- Hernan Mejia, one of the tournament's organizers. The South 
American Soccer Confederation said that Monday's abduction of Mejia 
"endangered the holding of the cup" in Colombia.]

Pastrana has been given high marks from European diplomats and human rights 
groups for his peace efforts. But his public support has declined sharply 
as the war has intensified and the FARC has become more powerful. There 
were 25,660 homicides in Colombia last year, making violence the leading 
cause of death.

Pastrana may have set public expectations too high when he began formal 
talks with the FARC for the first time in almost a decade, diplomats say. 
They added that perhaps he would have been more successful if he had tried 
to achieve smaller breakthroughs at the outset rather than continuing 
negotiations for years without reportable successes.

Diplomats and analysts here say Pastrana, facing a quickening campaign to 
replace him and lacking significant public support, will likely be limited 
to small gains with the guerrillas even though a quarter of his term 
remains. Although a cease-fire was among the first items to be taken up 
after Pastrana and the FARC leader, Manuel Marulanda, restarted talks in 
February, diplomats say that goal is likely out of reach.

Instead, diplomats involved in the talks say the government will push the 
FARC to stop several internationally condemned tactics, including the use 
of child soldiers, homemade bombs made from spent gas cylinders against 
civilians and mining of rural roads. Any agreements could help extend the 
process into the next president's term, a top priority of the diplomatic 
community here.

Marulanda appeared mindful of Pastrana's predicament last week when he 
agreed to free 163 more members of the Colombian security forces than 
called for in a prisoner exchange accord that took more than six months to 
reach. The FARC received 15 sick guerrillas in return, and Marulanda's 
well-received gesture was viewed by some analysts as a sign that he was 
hoping to strengthen Pastrana's hand at a difficult time.

Complicating matters is the unusually early start of the presidential 
election season, a symptom of Pastrana's perceived weakness. Pastrana is 
prohibited from running again, but the incipient campaign is becoming a 
referendum on his peace process. The election will be held in two rounds 
starting in May.

The Liberal Party candidate, Horacio Serpa, a former peace negotiator, and 
Noemi Sanin, an independent candidate and former foreign minister, have 
been cagey about how they would approach the peace process. But both have 
generally signaled a tougher line with the FARC.

Alvaro Uribe Velez, the former governor of Antioquia province whose father 
was killed by the FARC, has staked out the toughest position. Uribe favors 
ending the peace process in its current form and arming civilians.

During much of his term, Pastrana has been trying to strike a balance 
between the two very different views held by his international patrons on 
how to end Colombia's war.

On one side, the U.S. government has promoted through its aid package a 
largely military solution, involving U.S.-trained troops and spraying 
herbicide on the drug crops that finance the armed groups. Pastrana's 
European patrons, however, have largely condemned the U.S. position, 
favoring new social investment to strengthen Colombia's traditionally weak 
government institutions.

Increasingly, diplomats here are calling for the United States to take a 
more active role in Pastrana's peace efforts.

U.S. policy has been one of passive support for Pastrana's peace efforts, 
even though a senior U.S. official described him as "the best ally we have 
had in Colombia for a long, long time." Although worried that Pastrana 
might sacrifice elements of the anti-drug plan to preserve peace talks with 
the rebels, a U.S. diplomat said "we support the peace efforts covertly, 
overtly and in any other way."
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MAP posted-by: Larry Stevens