Pubdate: Mon, 22 Oct 2001
Source: Jane's Defence Weekly
Copyright: Jane's Information Group Limited 2001
Contact:  http://www.janes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/521
Author: Tamara Makarenko, Special Advisor on Transnational Crime

HEROIN ONSLAUGHT THEORY PREMATURE

Shortly following the events of 11 September, the media in the UK and US 
reported unconfirmed rumours that the Taliban had lifted their ban on opium 
poppy production as a show of support for Osama bin Laden. The conclusions 
drawn from this was that the West would soon be flooded with cheap Afghan 
heroin - including a new liquid heroin financed by Osama bin Laden, called 
the 'Tears of Allah'.

Increased seizure rates on the Afghan-Iranian and Afghan-Tajik borders have 
been cited as evidence that large shipments of opium and heroin were being 
moved out of Afghanistan.

This assessment, however, is premature and is somewhat flawed, since it is 
important to note that neither the Taliban nor al-Qaeda control the 
majority of drug trafficking routes outside of Afghanistan. The Taliban's 
involvement in drugs has revolved around taxing the illicit trade, while 
Al-Qaeda has access to a small number of routes as a result of the 
organisation's contacts with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and with 
Chechen militants.

Much of the drugs trade from Afghanistan is controlled by Afghan traders 
and other criminal networks who smuggle Afghan drugs further West. Because 
of this reality, it is very unlikely that the Western market will be 
flooded by cheap heroin.

Large confiscation rates in countries surrounding Afghanistan, coupled with 
evidence that the price of heroin has fallen significantly in the region, 
can be explained by the fact that following the events of 11 September 
Afghan traders - expecting US reprisals - needed to move their stockpiles 
for fear that they could be lost as a result of US military action. A low 
profit margin is naturally preferred to complete destruction.

Thus, the primary interest for criminal networks involved in the drugs 
trade of Afghanistan and Central Asia is to find alternative locations for 
opium and heroin stockpiles. Given that there is little indication that 
large shipments of illicit narcotics are leaving Central Asia, it appears 
as though alternative locations have been found. It may subsequently be 
ascertained that the price of heroin and opium will soon rise again.
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MAP posted-by: Larry Stevens