Pubdate: Sat, 03 Feb 2001
Source: U.S. News and World Report (US)
Copyright: 2001 U.S. News & World Report
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Author: Karl Penhaul

COLOMBIA'S DRUG WAR

Pastrana's Weakness Jeopardizes 'Plan Colombia'

BOGOTA - A joke making the rounds has Colombian President Andres Pastrana 
going into a bank to cash a check without ID and being asked to do 
something to prove who he is. He just shrugs and says: "I can't think of 
anything." The cashier pays him instantly.

The gibe reflects the belief of many ordinary Colombians that Pastrana, who 
took office in August 1998 after a record voter turnout, has essentially 
run out of ideas on how to deliver on his centerpiece pledge to negotiate a 
peaceful end to the country's 36-year-old, drug-fueled guerrilla war. His 
popularity has slumped to just 21 percent, and roughly three quarters of 
Colombians have lost faith in slowmoving peace talks with Revolutionary 
Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas, according to a recent Gallup Poll.

Drugs and money. But it is no laughing matter for Washington. With Colombia 
earmarked for $1.3 billion in mostly military aid, the United States has 
become the chief paymaster for an unpopular president and his controversial 
"Plan Colombia," designed to attack the booming drug production-a key 
pillar of rebel financing-and force the FARC to end its insurgency. 
European nations have reacted coolly to pleas for funds for social 
spending, so far pledging only $245 million. "Pastrana seems to be a lame 
duck now. If the peace process continues as it is doing, then it's dead," 
said Rodrigo Pardo, a former foreign minister. "Plan Colombia in its widest 
sense is only in the president's head. It is really only now the 
contribution of the United States."

In a tough-talking televised speech last week, Pastrana called on veteran 
FARC chieftain Manuel "Sureshot" Marulanda to quit stalling. "Let's decide 
once and for all if we're going to continue the peace process that we 
started," Pastrana said. The two are expected to meet Thursday, though 
prospects for a breakthrough are slim. In the past two years, peace talks 
have failed to secure agreement on a single item on a 12-point negotiating 
agenda. With a 17,000-strong force of well-armed fighters and income of 
around $600 million a year from the drug trade, kidnapping, and extortion, 
the rebels are in no rush to cut any deals. Said Gen. Fred Woerner, former 
commander of the U.S. Army's Southern Command, "A weakened president comes 
to the peace table almost encouraging intransigence on the part of the 
guerrillas."

Pastrana has repeatedly said he is not unduly concerned by opinion polls. 
But his threats to dissolve Congress in an anti-corruption drive in March 
and a poor showing by his ruling Conservative Party in October's local 
elections have sapped his power base at the national and regional levels. 
And now, the newly elected governors of six central and southern 
provinces-the main target of the U.S.-backed drug war-are defying central 
government orders and have begun moves to negotiate their own regional 
peace accords.
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MAP posted-by: Keith Brilhart