Pubdate: Thu, 08 Feb 2001
Source: San Jose Mercury News (CA)
Copyright: 2001 San Jose Mercury News
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Author: JUAN FORERO  New York Times

PRESSURE ON COLOMBIAN PRESIDENT TO GAIN REBELS' COMMITMENT TO NEGOTIATIONS

BOGOTA, Colombia -- With the hopes of a war-weary nation on his shoulders, 
Andres Pastrana won the presidency in June 1998. He was the candidate for 
peace who Colombians believed would bring Latin America's largest and 
oldest rebel group to the peace table.

But more than 2 1/2 years later, peace remains elusive, and Pastrana's 
popularity has plummeted. The rebels refuse to negotiate, and the swath of 
territory Pastrana ceded to them as a haven for peace talks remains firmly 
in their grasp. Many Colombians, frustrated over the lack of progress, have 
lost faith.

Now, Pastrana has embarked on a politically risky move that analysts are 
calling a last-ditch effort to avert all-out war: a meeting today in the 
rebel zone with Manuel Marulanda, the Marxist revolutionary who leads the 
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

The goal, as Pastrana put it in a direct appeal to Marulanda, is to 
``decide once and for all if we are going to continue the peace process 
that you and I started.''

Public in doubt

But political analysts say that for Pastrana to maintain political 
legitimacy and presidential authority, he has to return with more than just 
a nebulous pledge from Marulanda that his group is committed to a peaceful 
resolution of the 37-year-old conflict.

The rebel leader must agree -- and forcefully so -- that his group, known 
as FARC, will pursue peace through negotiations, experts say. And to prove 
the rebels' sincerity to a doubtful public, progress must be made on issues 
that have been obstacles to negotiations.

``The reunion shouldn't be just to reactivate the dialogue,'' said Luis 
Fernando Velasco, a Congress member and supporter of the peace effort. ``It 
wouldn't be enough to satisfy the expectations and the needs of the people.''

Several analysts said one hopeful and likely outcome could be an 
announcement that the two sides had agreed to press ahead on an exchange of 
sick prisoners.

But better for the president would be an affirmation from the rebels that 
they would seriously pursue a cease-fire or that international monitors 
would be allowed into the territory that the group controls.

``What has to be reaffirmed is there are two sides in this, that the FARC 
is also interested in moving the process forward,'' said Daniel 
Garc(acu)a-Pe, a former government peace negotiator and now the director of 
the peace group Planeta Paz. ``There has to be a re-launching of the 
process that will bring, in a few months, some concrete results, concrete 
accords that can give the process some life.''

Pastrana's efforts to renew the peace talks come as the United States is 
delivering a huge aid package aimed at curtailing Colombia's cocaine trade, 
which has helped fuel the war.

When Pastrana first created the demilitarized zone in November 1998, hopes 
were high that the unusual gesture would foster enough good will to bring 
peace. After all, Marulanda had supported Pastrana's candidacy.

Months later, though, Pastrana's efforts were being seriously tested. In 
January 1999, Marulanda snubbed Pastrana by failing to show up at their 
first planned meeting inside the rebel zone.

Setbacks in negotiations

And although the two men did finally meet again in May 1999, the past two 
years have seen both sides break off negotiations numerous times. Pastrana 
has repeatedly been forced to extend the life of the demilitarized zone to 
restart peace talks. All the while, the FARC has been accused of using the 
territory to fortify itself, hide kidnap victims and cultivate coca.

The latest slap in the face came in December, when a Colombian Congress 
member, Diego Turbay, and six others were assassinated just outside the 
zone and the rebels at first declined to take responsibility or offer a 
denial. Three weeks ago, Marulanda emphatically denied responsibility in an 
interview with Voz, a communist paper.

The setbacks have been devastating to Pastrana.

Semana, the leading newsmagazine in Colombia, noted in a story this week 
that the president ``who will arrive for the meeting with Marulanda'' is 
``not the same one from 2 1/2 years ago.'' Pastrana ``put all his chips'' 
on the peace plan, the article went on, which could mean he will finish his 
presidency with little to show for his efforts unless the FARC agrees to 
seriously talk peace. A presidential election is scheduled for next year, 
and Pastrana, as the incumbent, cannot run.
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