Pubdate: Mon, 12 Feb 2001
Source: Business Week (US)
Copyright: 2001 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Contact:  1221 Avenue of the Americas, 43rd Floor, New York, NY 10020
Fax: (212) 512-6458
Website: http://www.businessweek.com/
Author: Suzanne Timmons

TAKING A HARD LINE ALL THE WAY TO THE TOP?

Colombians' Frustration Fires Uribe Velez' Presidential Bid

BOGOTA -- Six months ago, Alvaro Uribe Velez was a mere blip on Colombia's 
political radar screen. With his support among voters at a lowly 5%, Uribe 
Velez' chances of winning the presidency in May, 2002, elections looked 
slim at best. But now more voters are paying heed to the former governor 
and ex-senator and his get-tough-on-crime message. Uribe Velez' standing in 
the polls has jumped to 17%, a sign that he is fast finding converts among 
the growing number of Colombians who are frustrated by government efforts 
to end nearly forty years of civil war.

Uribe Velez' hard-nosed tactics for dealing with Colombia's Marxist rebels, 
honed during a three-year stint as governor of war-torn Antioquia province, 
have earned him the reputation of a right-winger. But the 48-year-old 
candidate rejects that label. ''In a country with 32,000 assassinations a 
year, and with 60% of the kidnappings worldwide, wiping out crime is not a 
right-wing proposal,'' he says. ''It's common sense.'' Yet he has courted 
controversy with a plan to create a 1-million-man people's militia to help 
the Colombian army fight the rebels, as well as the rebels' arch foes, the 
paramilitaries.

Urban wealthy

At present, Uribe Velez appears to draw the bulk of his support from the 
urban wealthy. But his appeal may well be broadening to include others who 
believe that President Andres Pastrana has been too soft on the rebels. 
''It represents to some degree a radicalization of public opinion,'' says 
Elisabeth Ungar, a political science professor at the University of the 
Andes in Bogota. According to a December survey, just 19% of the population 
believes that the peace process is on the right track.

Negotiations with the largest guerrilla group, the 17,000-strong 
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are now entering their third 
year, but there's been scant progress so far. The rebels have yet to make 
any meaningful concessions, including calling a ceasefire, even though the 
government has ceded them a large swath of territory in southern Colombia 
as a venue for the talks. And despite evidence that the FARC has been using 
the area to hide kidnap victims, recruit fighters, and launch attacks on 
military positions, Pastrana has so far refused to revoke the enclave.

Uribe Velez claims that if elected President, he will take a firmer line 
with the rebels. That's just what he did between 1995 and 1997 when he was 
governor of Antioquia, Colombia's second-largest province and onetime home 
to the infamous Medellin drug cartel. There, Uribe Velez promoted the 
creation of the controversial Convivirs. Styled as self-defense patrols, 
these armed militias supplied intelligence to the armed forces and helped 
police combat crime.

It wasn't long before some of the local militias, which eventually numbered 
67 in Antioquia and 400 nationwide, morphed into deadly paramilitary squads 
that targeted not only guerrillas but also suspected civilian sympathizers. 
That led the Colombian government to strip the Convivirs of most of their 
power in 1997. Yet some conservative Antioquians still defend the patrols 
as an effective tool against crime, saying they helped reduce kidnappings, 
extortion, cattle rustling, and homicides. ''If [Uribe Velez] were to do at 
the national level what he did at the [provincial] level, we're convinced 
that it could change the direction of the country,'' says Juan David 
Pelaez, president of Antioquia's cattlemen federation.

Or it could well drag Colombia deeper into a conflict that has claimed 
30,000 lives in the past decade. Now the war threatens to spill over into 
neighboring Andean countries and is even embroiling the U.S., which is 
channeling $ 1.3 billion to the Pastrana administration to help fight the 
drug trade. Colombia's civil war could easily escalate if Uribe Velez seeks 
to provide the national civilian militia he wants to create with weapons -- 
an option he leaves open. ''How can it be guaranteed that those 1 million 
Colombians won't menace the lives of a lot of innocent people?'' says Ana 
Teresa Bernal, national coordinator of Redepaz, a grassroots network that 
promotes the peace process.

Of course, Uribe Velez' presidential bid is still a long shot. The 
independent candidate trails front-runner Noemi Sanin of the center-right 
Si Colombia party by 17 points in the polls. Still, a year can be an 
eternity in politics, and the tide could yet turn in Uribe Velez' favor. 
The peace process will be a decisive factor. If the talks produce results, 
Colombians may rally behind more moderate candidates. If not, voters may 
think about giving a hard-liner like Uribe Velez a chance at trying 
something different.

RESUME: Alvaro Uribe Velez BORN  July 4, 1952, in Medellin.

EDUCATION Undergraduate degree in law and political science from Antioquia 
University. Graduate-level course work in business management and conflict 
resolution at Harvard University.

CAREER Served as mayor of Medellin and two terms as senator of Antioquia 
province. Credited with bringing down crime and improving education during 
a single term as governor of Antioquia (1995-97).

PERSONAL Married, with two teenaged sons. Hobbies include yoga, swimming, 
and taming horses.
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