Pubdate: Sat, 14 Apr 2001 Source: San Jose Mercury News (CA) Copyright: 2001 San Jose Mercury News Contact: http://www.sjmercury.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/390 Author: Don Thompson, Associated Press Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/prop36.htm (Substance Abuse and Crime Prevention Act) INMATE POPULATION EXPECTED TO DROP PROP. 36: State Law Expected To Send 5,000 To Drug Treatment Instead Of Prison In First Year SACRAMENTO -- California's prison population will drop by more than 5,000 inmates in the first year after voters opted to send drug offenders to treatment instead of prison, according to new projections. The nation's largest prison population -- 160,655 inmates at the end of 2000 -- will keep shrinking until 2004. Then, tough-on-crime laws are projected to increase the population again, although much more slowly than prison officials had projected before now. By 2006, the population is expected to be nearly 18,000 inmates fewer than the California Department of Corrections had predicted before voters approved Proposition 36 in November. Despite the drop, prison officials say they need to keep building maximum-security prisons to house hard-core offenders. "We continue to have a serious shortage of maximum-security beds in state prisons," said Steve Green, assistant secretary of the Youth and Adult Correctional Agency. "We don't see that abating any time soon." Proposition 36, which takes effect July 1, requires that people convicted of using or possessing drugs for the first or second time be sent to community treatment programs instead of prison or jail. After the first year, the department predicts, the prison population will be 9,216 fewer than the number estimated in October. Of that, the voter initiative is projected to be responsible for 5,388 fewer inmates. "To me it sounds like the estimates might be a little aggressive," said K. Jack Riley, director of Rand Corp.'s community justice department. "I think we'll see uneven implementation of it across the state." Green predicted the proposition eventually will result in longer terms for hard-core drug offenders. "In the long run, we think our population will go up as persons who escape prison the first time around come into the system as they commit more serious crimes," Green said. The prison population dropped last year for the first time in 22 years. Prison officials credited a lower crime rate and a drop in parole violations. According to the report, the number of inmates dropped by 1,345 in the last half of the year, for a net decline for 2000 of 32 inmates. That compares with an increase of 1,124 in 1999 and 4,287 in 1998. The decline compares with an average 14.5 percent population growth during the 1980s and average 6.3 percent increases during the 1990s. - --- MAP posted-by: Richard Lake