Pubdate: Sun, 06 Jan 2002 Source: Age, The (Australia) Copyright: 2002 The Age Company Ltd Contact: http://www.theage.com.au/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/5 BUSH'S WAR ON DRUGS As speeches about drugs go, the terse message that President George W. Bush recently delivered to America's junkies began on a familiar note. Drugs were bad, he said while signing a nickel-and-dime bill to fund rehab clinics. Bush went on to break new ground, however. Adopting the stern tone and grim visage normally reserved for pronouncements about the justice awaiting Osama bin Laden, he continued: "It's important for Americans to know that trafficking of drugs finances the world of terror, sustaining terrorists; if you quit drugs, you join the fight against terrorism." Lest reporters conclude that Bush was simply minting fresh cliches, aides were at pains to stress that, unlike previous administrations, this President was in earnest. From now on, they said, the drug war would be treated as a second front in the campaign against terror. These were bold words indeed, and not simply because all previous efforts to stop Americans getting high have been costly failures. Any serious war on drugs will demand Bush find an answer to an issue that has bedevilled policymakers since the 1960s: Just how blind an eye should Washington turn to the drug-dealing activities of those it counts as friends? In Vietnam, the CIA placed Air America, its wholly-owned subsidiary, at the service of anti-communist opium growers in the Golden Triangle. In Reagan's clandestine war against the Sandinistas of Nicaragua, it was the Contras' turn to run drugs while the US sheriff looked the other way. In Panama, dictator Manuel Noriega's control of drugs flowing through his country on their way to the eager noses of el Norte did not crimp the CIA's affection for him, at least not until his relations with Washington soured under Bush the Elder. Now, if Bush the Younger is serious about treating drug producers as terrorists, he must decide what to do about Afghanistan, where history appears poised to repeat. Hitting drug-dealing enemies like the Taliban and al Qaeda is one thing. But how is he to handle comrades-in-arms like the Northern Alliance, which deals in the same Afghan opium? According to UN estimates, about 70 per cent of the world's heroin begins as Afghan opium. News reports attributed to US intelligence sources over the past three months have said that much of that crop was grown, packaged and shipped under the Taliban's auspices, with some claiming that bin Laden had tried to trade huge consignments to the Russian Mafia in return for arms, perhaps even nuclear and biological materials. The Taliban's role is only part of the picture, however. With a hot war winding down and the more delicate business of nation building about to begin, the opium that Afghan peasants sowed in last year's autumn planting season will be ready to harvest in May. "All our information is consistent - - they're replanting poppies in a major way," says Bernard Frahi, regional director of the UN's Geneva-based Drug Control and Crime Prevention program, of the provinces controlled by the Alliance. "In a country that's been bled dry, it's the easiest way to get cash quickly." Frahi and other UN experts expect this year's Afghan crop will be the biggest since 2000, the last year of unrestrained production before the Taliban made a great show of uprooting poppy fields in an attempt to win favor with the West. What the mullahs didn't do, however, was destroy a vast stockpile of opium, perhaps as much as 4000 tonnes. Like bin Laden, that stockpile is nowhere to be found, though it is easy to deduce where a large part of it might have gone. According to the Economist, a kilogram of raw opium was bringing about $US700 ($A1345) in the drug bazaars of northern Pakistan on September 10. Two weeks later the Taliban flooded the market to raise cash and the price dropped to just $US100. With the fugitive Mullah Mohammed Omar believed to be holed up in Helmand province, the traditional seat of Afghanistan's opium industry, the mountain cultivators are likely to be too busy dodging American bombs to bring much of that southern district's coming harvest to market. Good news for America's drug warriors? Well, not quite. According to the UN, the Northern Alliance has been, quite literally, digging in to meet any shortfall. While the Taliban was last year cashing a cheque for $US43 million from the Bush administration as a token of Washington's gratitude for Kabul's pronouncement that "opium growing is against the will of God", the Northern Alliance was shipping out by way of Russia and neighbouring ex-Soviet republics what the UN estimates was 200 tonnes of opium. Even the US Drug Enforcement Administration conceded that, while the Taliban's opium prohibition temporarily reduced supply, they were being played for suckers. By publicly destroying crops while simultaneously making sly sales from their stockpiles, the Taliban's drug brokers were able to exploit a hungry market that Washington had paid them to create. Now it is the Northern Alliance's turn. The Bush administration has been making optimistic noises about switching the Afghan economy to more innocent cash crops, but experts see little hope of that policy achieving tangible results - particularly in the short term, when Washington's primary focus will be on shepherding the country's feuding factions into something that resembles a form of consensus democracy. That rules out the approach being taken against cocaine in Colombia, where US Special Forces advisers are joining local troops on search-and-destroy missions aimed at coca plantations and processing facilities. Try that in Afghanistan, and America can expect today's allies to be tomorrow's enemies. - --- MAP posted-by: Terry Liittschwager