Pubdate: Sat, 29 Jun 2002 Source: San Jose Mercury News (CA) Copyright: 2002 San Jose Mercury News Contact: http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/390 Author: Kevin G. Hall, Mercury News Rio de Janeiro Bureau COCA IN BOLIVIA CHIMORE, Bolivia -- Bolivia's remarkable victories in the drug war may be at risk in presidential elections Sunday. Bolivia, which once led the world in cultivating the plant from which cocaine is made, has eradicated 85 to 95 percent of its coca production during the past four years. But political turmoil threatens to undermine the anti-coca efforts. Polls suggest that no candidate is likely to win a majority of Sunday's vote. If that happens, Congress would have to pick a president, and a weak coalition government probably would result. That would be a severe blow to Washington's war on drugs. Political turmoil in Peru has allowed the cocaine trade there to rebound, and despite millions in U.S. military aid, coca king Colombia has failed to defeat the Marxist rebels who control drug zones there. Bolivia has uprooted almost 90,000 acres of coca in the southern Chapare region, and since 1998, has taken 230 to 300 tons of cocaine out of the world drug trade. But the hardy coca bush, which is harvested four times a year, could bounce back faster than crabgrass if Bolivia's new government lacks the will and the muscle to continue the unpopular campaign against it. The government tried in November to discourage coca farmers from replanting by decreeing that possessing or transporting coca is a crime. But violent protests nullified the decree, and U.S. eradication experts in the Chapare said 95 percent of the bushes now being eradicated were newly planted. "We need a legal measure to penalize the person who goes back to this. After it is uprooted, they just go back to planting it," Lt. Col. Jaime Cruz Vera, the head of rural interdiction forces, complained in an interview at an army base in muggy Chimore, once home to much of Bolivia's coca trade. Hours after soldiers uprooted her remaining coca bushes along a back road near the Chimore River, Emedia Castro stripped and dried them, hoping to earn what little she could in one of the region's 15 illegal coca markets. During a trip through the Chapare this month, a Mercury News reporter found coca bushes hidden among banana trees and behind passion-fruit vines. Peasant women dried coca leaves in front of wooden shacks, and at one clandestine coca market, Indian women said coca would continue to be grown in the Chapare because it was the only cash crop. The Chapare is the size of New Jersey, and Bolivian forces and their U.S. partners must revisit a third of the region every year in an effort to wipe out new coca plantings. Bolivia's next government may not be willing or able to continue the battle. Eradicating the coca trade in the Chapare cost farmers in South America's poorest country $400 million in illicit earnings, and the leading presidential candidates are trying to avoid alienating the country's Indian and mixed-race majority. In an interview, Manfred Reyes Villa, the presidential front-runner, drew a careful distinction between growing coca, which Indians use for medicinal purposes, and producing cocaine. "In my government we will have a frontal attack on cocaine, not coca. Coca is a traditional, cultural theme, but we will fight against drug trafficking," Reyes Villa said. The campaign against coca has helped make an obscure agitator named Evo Morales Ayma a political force. Polls show Morales running third or fourth, and his Indian-based Movement to Socialism Party may win three of 27 Senate seats. That would enable him to gum up anti-drug legislation and demand that Chapare farmers legally be allowed to cultivate small plots of coca. U.S. drug experts said any backsliding would lead to uncontrolled new plantings, but President Jorge Quiroga said he expected his successor to maintain Bolivia's anti-coca course. "I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that the next government will backtrack, because really the hard part has been done," he said in an interview at the presidential palace in La Paz, Bolivia's capital. "The controls must stay in place, but it is easier to control replanting as opposed to start from zero and having to do all the eradication and alternative development that we've done." - --- MAP posted-by: Beth