Pubdate: Wed, 10 Jul 2002
Source: Miami Herald (FL)
Copyright: 2002 The Miami Herald
Contact:  http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/262
Author: Andres Oppenheimer
Note: Herald intern Alejandro Landes contributed to this report.

BOLIVIAN'S CLOUT MAY HARM DRUG WAR

Coca growers' leader Evo Morales made a stunning leap to second place 
Tuesday in the final count of Bolivia's June 30 presidential elections, 
ensuring sufficient political clout to threaten U.S.-financed anti-drug 
programs in one of the world's biggest coca-producing countries.

Morales, a hard-line socialist of indigenous descent who has vowed to fight 
capitalism and close down the DEA offices in Bolivia if elected, won about 
21 percent of the vote, and ended up less than two percentage points behind 
former president Gonzalo Sanchez de Losada. Congress will have to choose 
between the top two vote-getters by Aug. 4.

While most political analysts agree that Sanchez de Losada, a wealthy 
businessman, will become president, they also agree that Morales' rise from 
the fringes of Bolivia's political system to the leadership of the 
second-largest bloc in Congress will alter Bolivia's politics. His position 
will also deal a serious setback to the U.S. war on drugs in that country, 
analysts say.

"The U.S. anti-drug policy in Bolivia is doomed," said Eduardo Gamarra, the 
Bolivian-born director of Florida International University's Latin American 
and Caribbean Center. "I don't see how Sanchez de Losada could possibly 
continue with the policy of forced eradication of coca plants without 
Morales bringing the country to a halt."

Morales, 42, leader of the Movement to Socialism, has led often violent 
protests by Bolivia's coca growers against U.S.-backed eradication 
programs. A descendant of Quechua and Aymara Indians, he was supported by 
large numbers of Bolivia's indigenous people, who, despite making up about 
70 percent of Bolivia's population, had little representation in the 
country's political class.

At age 22, Morales became a union leader for the coca farmers in the 
central region of Chapare. He was elected to Congress in 1997, but became 
known for helping coca farmers organize blockades of highways. The farmers 
demanded legalization of their crops.

Earlier this year, Morales was expelled from Congress, charged with 
inciting violence. During the presidential campaign, he said he would close 
down the DEA office in Bolivia, alleged that the U.S. Embassy was trying to 
kill him, and asserted that capitalism is humanity's worst enemy.

In a telephone interview Tuesday, Morales told The Herald that he admires 
Cuba's political system. "It is important for the Latin American people to 
liberate themselves. Countries that liberate themselves, such as Cuba, are 
a model for us," he said.

In recent days, Morales joked that he owed part of his good showing in the 
polls to U.S. Ambassador Manuel Rocha, who three days before the vote said 
that U.S. aid to Bolivia could be threatened if the country elected "those 
who want Bolivia to once again become a major cocaine exporter." The 
comment was criticized by Bolivian politicians as an interference in the 
country's electoral process.

A State Department official in Washington, however, said earlier this week 
that Rocha "forcefully defended U.S. policy and rebutted recent incendiary 
comments by presidential candidate Evo Morales, regarding U.S. government 
and DEA representation in Bolivia."

With neither Morales nor Sanchez de Losada expected to win a majority in 
the congressional vote, the one with the most votes will be elected 
president. Morales has hinted that he may take his case to the streets if 
he loses that vote.

On Tuesday, he was quoted by the Bolivian daily El Diario as saying that 
"the problems should be resolved peacefully, and if we're not listened to, 
there will be new protests on the streets."

He rejected the idea of forming a coalition with Bolivia's traditional 
parties, saying that he would not team up with those "who defend the banner 
of neo-liberalism and kill our people to pursue U.S. government interests."

While most analysts agree that Morales is not committed to democracy, some 
see a positive development in the fact that Bolivia's long-excluded Indians 
will now have a major representation in the 157-seat Congress.
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