Pubdate: Sun, 19 May 2002 Source: New York Times (NY) Copyright: 2002 The New York Times Company Contact: http://www.nytimes.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/298 Section: International Author: Juan Forero RIGHTIST'S HARD LINE APPEALS TO WAR-WEARY COLOMBIANS BOGOTA, Colombia, May 18 - He has already survived one assassination attempt this year, so Alvaro Uribe's run for the presidency has been especially cautious, even in this war-ravaged country. Public appearances have been minimal, mainly teleconferences with select audiences or low-key meetings with small groups of businessmen, all confined to this capital city. It is not an ideal way to campaign. But Mr. Uribe, an ultraconservative candidate whose promise to crack down on leftist rebels has resonated with a conflict-weary populace, still holds a commanding lead in the polls with a week to go before an election that is being closely watched in Washington. Indeed, Mr. Uribe, a lawyer and expert horseman from northern Colombia, is expected to receive nearly 50 percent of the vote in next Sunday's election, 20 percentage points more than his nearest rival, Horacio Serpa, and nearly the majority needed to avoid a June 16 runoff. But while Mr. Uribe will almost surely become the next president, what is less certain is what effects his policies would have on this country and what they would mean for the United States, which has provided nearly $2 billion in mostly military aid since 2000. What Mr. Uribe, 49, a former governor and senator from Antioquia province province who has completed courses at Harvard and Oxford, prescribes is a break from the policies of the current president, Andres Pastrana. Mr. Pastrana, whose peace talks with rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, collapsed earlier this year, is barred under the Constitution from seeking re-election. Pledging to become "the first soldier of Colombia" in a campaign against leftist rebels, Mr. Uribe promises to double the size of the army's combat force and the police and to organize one million villagers to serve as informants, some of them armed. He also has cast himself as a corruption fighter who will free up government funds for his programs. "We are going to work hard to strengthen the capacity of the state to protect the citizenry and control the violent ones," Mr. Uribe said recently, as his heavily protected motorcade sped from a campaign event. "This is a country that has suffered very much from violence and kidnapping and we are going to put a stop to this problem." The United States, he said, will play a central role because Colombia is counting on military hardware and training so Colombian troops can better fight the rebels. Currently American aid can only go toward operations to counter drugs, but the Bush administration is pressing Congress to allow American-trained soldiers and equipment to be used directly against the guerrillas. Mr. Uribe, some American lawmakers believe, is the appropriate caretaker for that policy. "We feel that he would be an action-type president," said Representative Cass Ballenger, a North Carolina Republican on the International Relations Committee. "I think President Pastrana was a heck of a nice guy. He dedicated himself to making peace, but they took advantage of him. I don't think Uribe is that kind of guy." Indeed, Mr. Uribe - whose campaign slogan is "firm hand, big heart" - is seen as a leader tailor-made for this chaotic country. The rebels, clearly feeling threatened, carried out a street bombing on April 14 that damaged Mr. Uribe's passing motorcade, killing four bystanders but leaving him unscathed. Mr. Uribe's lead in the polls is a testament to Colombian fatigue with a grinding 38-year conflict. Voters seem to be overlooking the fact that Mr. Uribe is an independent candidate representing the far right in a centrist country where only Liberal or Conservative party politicians have won national office. Mr. Uribe and his Colombia First movement have the support of 55 of 102 senators and 97 of 165 representatives, according to a survey of Colombia's Congress by the University of Los Andes. Mr. Uribe has mined Colombian frustration for months, criticizing Mr. Pastrana's peace efforts and harshly denouncing the FARC rebels for practically every atrocity, like the May 2 rebel rocket attack on a church that killed 117 civilians. His own personal loss in the conflict - his father was slain by the guerrillas in 1983 - has also struck a chord. "This is the first time we Colombians feel there is someone who is going to give us back what is ours," said Luis Guillermo Henao, 40, a civil engineer who plans to vote for Mr. Uribe. "Uribe is the response to the crisis." But Mr. Uribe's ability to deliver on his promises will not be easy. His scheme to add 50,000 combat troops to the 55,000 the army already has, along with doubling the size of the National Police to 200,000 officers, could cost up to $1 billion a year - a heavy increase in a country with an annual budget of $27 billion. "Aside from that business over reducing corruption, the president nearly-elect has not said from where the money will come," Hernando Gomez Buendia, a leading columnist at Semana magazine, wrote last week. Mr. Uribe has also worried human rights groups, who believe that his policies may come at a steep price for Colombia's fragile democracy. During his governorship of Antioquia from 1995 to 1997, illegal right-wing paramilitary groups thrived, working with some military units in their brutal campaign against guerrillas. Two generals in the region - Rito Alejo del Rio and Fernando Millan - were fired by President Pastrana for rights abuses, and Mr. del Rio's visa to travel to the United States was canceled. Yet, Mr. Uribe continues to support Mr. del Rio, having used him as an adviser on military matters even though the former general is under investigation in Colombia. In a meeting late last year with Jose Miguel Vivanco, director of operations in Latin America for Human Rights Watch, Mr. Uribe also expressed disagreement with Mr. Pastrana's decision to force out other high-ranking officers who were believed to have ties to the paramilitaries. While Mr. Uribe has incorporated into his speeches the need to battle paramilitaries, Mr. Vivanco said he has doubts about his sincerity. "The question is," Mr. Vivanco said, "can he convince Colombia and the international community that he is committed to fighting right-wing paramilitary groups?" Mr. Uribe has also faced questions about his past associations. His father was friendly with Fabio Ochoa, the now-deceased father of three brothers who were among Colombia's most fearsome drug traffickers a decade ago. His closest aide during his governorship of Antioquia was Pedro Juan Moreno, who was investigated by United States officials because his company had imported into Colombia a suspicious shipment of chemicals that could have been used for cocaine production. The candidate said there was nothing inappropriate about these relationships, noting that Mr. Moreno was never charged and that his father's friendship with the elder Ochoa was based on mutual love of horses. "For 30 years," he said, "I have simply been an honest politician." Mr. Uribe - to most voters viewed as transparent, bookish and earnest about solving Colombia's myriad problems - hammers home the need to end corruption and reform government, saying that the money saved would allow for the construction of schools and improvement of government services. "The candidacy of Alvaro Uribe has generated enormous expectations," said Elisabeth Ungar, a political scholar at Los Andes. "I just think it is going to be very difficult to reach those heights, not just because of resources - everyone knows the country's difficult situation - but also because of the political situation." - --- MAP posted-by: Keith Brilhart