Pubdate: Fri, 24 May 2002
Source: Wall Street Journal (US)
Copyright: 2002 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Contact:  http://www.wsj.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/487
Author: Marc Lifsher, Staff Reporter Of The Wall Street Journal

AS COLOMBIANS GO TO POLLS, THE U.S. WATCHES CLOSELY

BOGOTA, Colombia -- As Colombians go to the polls Sunday, wondering whether 
their votes will only widen the country's decades-old conflict, no one will 
be watching the outcome more intently than the U.S.

U.S. policy makers, no less than Colombians themselves, are asking whether 
victory by frontrunner Alvaro Uribe would bring more death and destruction 
to their potentially prosperous Andean nation, plagued by armed 
insurrections for 38 years. Mr. Uribe proposes to seize areas now overrun 
by heavily armed leftist guerrillas and rightist paramilitaries. To do 
that, he would double the size of the military and create civilian militias.

Opposing candidates denounce Mr. Uribe's platform as a prescription for 
complete civil war. But polls suggest he will get 49% of the vote, while 
his closest competitor in the field of 11 candidates, Horacio Serpa, has 
23%. A run-off would be held June 16 if Mr. Uribe fails to garner 50% of 
the vote Sunday.

The U.S. has a big stake in the outcome. Presidents Bush and Clinton have 
poured more than $1 billion, mainly in military aid, into Colombia's fight 
against narcotics trafficking. And more help, including some aimed directly 
at fighting insurgents, is moving through the congressional appropriations 
pipeline. Colombia is the third-biggest recipient of U.S. foreign aid. The 
State Department lists Colombia's three main insurgent forces as terrorist 
organizations.

A U.S. Embassy official said Washington is confident it will be able to 
work with any of the leading candidates, and that the U.S. expects to 
"continue a close bilateral relationship and to increase our support for 
Colombia."

But analysts suggest the U.S. isn't so indifferent as to who wins. Though 
it has gotten along well with outgoing President Andres Pastrana, 
Washington should work even better with Mr. Uribe, says Russell Crandall, a 
Colombia specialist at Davidson College in North Carolina. He notes that 
the Liberal Party candidate, Mr. Serpa, served in the 1994-98 
administration of President Ernesto Samper, whom the U.S. criticized as 
weak on drug traffickers.

"When Serpa looked good in the polls, Washington kind of held its nose and 
said we'll work with you. It did not bring up the past," he says. "But, now 
that the higher-ups are focused on Colombia, they know they won't have to 
deal with Serpa. They're very excited to work with Uribe."

Mr. Uribe is also the candidate favored by Wall Street, which views him as 
the best hope for ending the armed conflict, even though it wonders how he 
will pay for the military effort he's promising.

"He looks more market-friendly and does not want to increase the size of 
government," says Luis Oganes, an Andean specialist with Bear Stearns & 
Co., Mr. Serpa, he says, is more of a liberal tax-and-spender.

But Congress and the State Department will be watching to ensure that an 
Uribe administration is equally tough on both the leftist rebels and the 
paramilitaries, says Robin Kirk of the Washington-based Human Rights Watch. 
Pending legislation, she says, requires that Colombia "fight all sources of 
terror," she says. Bills now in Congress provide funding to train and 
deploy troops to protect vital infrastructure, such as oil pipelines and 
electric-transmission lines.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom