Pubdate: Mon,  5 Jan 2004
Source: Chicago Sun-Times (IL)
Copyright: 2004 The Sun-Times Co.
Contact:  http://www.suntimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/81
Author: Robert Novak

BOLIVIA'S DRUG CRISIS WORSENING

While the Bush White House publicly brags about reduced coca production in 
South America's Andean region, there is dismay behind the scenes in the 
U.S. intelligence community. A recent classified National Intelligence 
summary reported there is not any scenario under current conditions that 
will continue aggressive eradication in Bolivia of the crop used to produce 
cocaine. That threatens the unraveling of the U.S. anti-drug program based 
in Colombia.

The problem with the program, begun by the Clinton administration, is 
focusing South America entirely on counter-drug objectives rather than 
counter-insurgency concerns. The result in Bolivia has been deepening 
political turmoil after pro-coca forces helped oust a pro-American president.

U.S. preoccupation with the Middle East and Central Asia ignores what is 
happening next door amid rising influence of a new clique of leftist, 
anti-American leaders. Evo Morales, Bolivia's rising radical, and Fidel 
Castro, Cuba's dictator, both were in Caracas Dec. 21 and 22 to meet with 
Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chavez. That was preceded by Jimmy 
Carter's visit to Bolivia, where the former president, praising Morales as 
an ''impressive'' leader with a great future, undermined U.S. counter-drug 
policies.

These ominous developments have not been mentioned publicly by official 
Washington. ''White House hails drops in coca cultivation in Bolivia, 
Peru,'' trumpeted the State Department propaganda apparatus on Nov. 25. A 
close reading of the handout reveals that coca production in Bolivia, not 
linked with Peru, actually increased in 2003.

Beyond numbers, the official U.S. line has little to do with reality. The 
backlash to U.S.-sponsored coca eradication in Bolivia was behind the 
violent ouster Oct. 17 of Washington's friend in La Paz, President Gonzalo 
Sanchez de Lozada. U.S. officials who have been there believe the momentum 
is rising.

On Dec. 11, suspected ELN-B terrorists, who are coca growers in the Chapare 
region and members of Morales' Socialist Movement, were arrested. They were 
released four days later after Morales talked to President Carlos Mesa. On 
Dec. 12, explosives were thrown at a U.S.-funded rural electrical project, 
substantiating complaints by U.S. aid personnel that they are unprotected. 
On Dec. 17, three ELN-B operatives were arrested for transporting a large 
cache of 81mm shells to Chapare, a center of coca eradication.

To combat these developments, the United States in the last year provided 
only $500,000 for Bolivia's military and police compared with $90 million 
for coca eradication. Bolivian security forces are well equipped for 
anti-coca operations in the jungle but have been given neither equipment 
nor training to maintain public order even for a single day.

Here is a latter-day domino effect. Dissenting officials in the U.S. 
government believe Bolivia is becoming what the Pentagon calls an 
''ungoverned area.'' They fear that Colombia's narcoterrorists will switch 
their growing and processing operations to Bolivia, making irrelevant U.S. 
counter-drug policy in Colombia. That prospect is privately viewed by 
Colombian officials as fully realistic and as a catastrophe, returning the 
situation in the Andes to where it was in the bad old days of the 1980s.

As this crisis built in La Paz, Carter arrived there on Dec. 17. Morales, 
seen by U.S. officials as behind the ouster of President Sanchez de Lozada, 
had just threatened to bring down Mesa's government if eight ELN-B 
terrorists were not released. Carter sat down with Morales to tell him he 
supported a pause in Chapare coca eradication while the United Nations 
studies the program. So much for U.S. policy.

Carter also expressed support for land-locked Bolivia's revanchist dreams 
of acquiring access to the sea by regaining lost territory from Chile and 
Peru. In Caracas, Chavez revealed he ''had dreams of swimming on a Bolivian 
beach.'' In Havana, Castro promptly voiced support. These developments were 
duly noted by a few, but mostly ignored in Washington.
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MAP posted-by: Larry Stevens