Pubdate: Mon, 19 Dec 2005
Source: Wall Street Journal (US)
Page: A15
Copyright: 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Contact:  http://www.wsj.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/487
Author: Jose De Cordoba, Staff Reporter of the Wall Street Journal
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/people/Evo+Morales
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/topics/Bolivia
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/coke.htm (Cocaine)

LEFTIST IN BOLIVIA IS LIKELY WINNER FOR PRESIDENCY

Morales Gets 51% of Vote, According to Exit Polls; U.S. Faces Another Challenge

LA PAZ, Bolivia -- Evo Morales, an indigenous leader who opposes U.S.
free-market and drug-eradication policies, appeared to win the
presidency of natural-gas rich Bolivia in the first round of voting,
after voters gave him 51% of the vote, according to exit polls.

Mr. Morales's conservative rival, Jorge Quiroga, conceded defeat on
national television. "Bolivian democracy is concluding one cycle and
beginning another," Mr. Quiroga said. He then congratulated Mr.
Morales and his running mate.

Mr. Morales's first-round election is a new blow to U.S. policy in the
region, and a coup for Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has
supported Mr. Morales. Mr. Morales is part of a populist leftward
ideology that is gathering strength in Latin America and which now
includes the governments of Venezuela, Cuba and Argentina. The
front-runner in Mexico's presidential election also shares a similar
political outlook.

"We will bury neo-liberalism, and with the strength of the people we
will confront U.S. imperialism," Mr. Morales told a cheering crowd of
supporters earlier in the week in the final rally of his campaign. "We
are ready to free the country."

Mr. Morales's election may well hinder U.S. efforts to get Andean
countries to crack down on coca production and substitute cash crops
instead. Mr. Morales rose to political prominence as the leader of the
country's coca farmers and has pledged to decriminalize coca
cultivation in Bolivia, where some coca is grown for medicinal and
religious purposes but most is used to make cocaine.

"If [the U.S.] wants relations, welcome," Mr. Morales said after
voting. "But no to a relationship of submission."

Looking to avoid provoking a nationalist backlash, the U.S. took a low
profile during the election campaign. A State Department spokesman
said last week the U.S. said it expected Bolivia to continue its
antidrug efforts and would re-evaluate its relationship with the
country depending on the new government's policies.

Mr. Morales's victory could spell trouble for foreign oil companies
working in Bolivia. Last week, he said that if elected, he would
consider voiding the more than 70 contracts allowing gas exploration
by foreign companies.

Bolivia has 52 trillion cubic feet in natural-gas reserves, the
second-largest in South America after Venezuela. Bolivia's Congress
passed a new hydrocarbons law in May, raising taxes by 32% and
requiring that companies renegotiate their original contracts signed
in the 1990s.

Many of the companies, such as Spain's Repsol YPF SA, the United
Kingdom's BG Group PLC and France's Total SA, have balked at contract
renegotiations and sought refuge in bilateral investment protection
treaties.

Mr. Morales, a miner's son, grew up herding llamas before becoming a
union official representing coca farmers. He will be the first Indian
president since Bolivia declared its independence from Spain in 1825.
"We will finish with the discrimination, xenophobia, scorn and hatred
to which we have been submitted historically," he told cheering
supporters in his hometown of Cochabamba.

An 11th-grade dropout, Mr. Morales would face huge obstacles to
governing effectively, not least his lack of experience.

But Mr. Morales's lack of education and governing experience didn't
bother his supporters. "I haven't studied much either," said Raymunda
Villacorta, a market vendor in Mr. Morales's stronghold of El Alto, a
sprawling working-class city with a predominantly indigenous
population right at the entrance of the city of La Paz. "Those who
have studied a lot have done a lot of damage to the country."

Analysts say Mr. Morales will likely use his victory to push for a
constitutional assembly set for next year whose goal is to "refound"
Bolivia. Among the changes being sought would be to reconstitute the
legislature, apportioning seats to different ethnic groups and labor
unions.

Ironically, perhaps Mr. Morales's biggest challenge may well come from
within his movement. Mr. Morales's inflammatory rhetoric has awakened
a revolution of expectations among poor Bolivians, frustrated with the
country's corrupt political class, who expect Mr. Morales to quickly
improve their living standards. Already, Senator Roman Loayza and some
organizations from Mr. Morales's stronghold of El Alto are threatening
to take to the streets if Mr. Morales doesn't nationalize the gas
industry and keep other electoral promises within 90 days.

Analysts agreed the vote was a stunning victory for Mr. Morales. "It
makes him the candidate who has received the most votes in Bolivia's
democratic history," said Eduardo Gamarra, an expert on Bolivia at
Florida International University. "It's historic."

The poorest country in South America, landbound Bolivia has been
bitterly divided by race, region and political philosophy. Popular in
the Andean highlands, Mr. Morales is seen with enormous distrust by
powerful entrepreneurs in the outward-looking eastern lowland plain
states of Santa Cruz and Tarija, whose exports of natural gas and soya
drive Bolivia's economy. 
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MAP posted-by: Richard Lake