Pubdate: Wed, 11 Oct 2006
Source: Sun-Sentinel (Fort Lauderdale, FL)
Copyright: 2006 Sun-Sentinel Company
Contact:  http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/159
Author: Monte Hayes, The Associated Press

CANDIDATE TAKES ANTI-U.S. TACK

He Leads Race To Be President Of Ecuador

QUITO, Ecuador   Ecuador's front-runner in Sunday's presidential 
election has rattled Wall Street with anti-U.S. rhetoric and 
nationalist pledges torn from the playbook of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Rafael Correa's surge in the polls from a distant third a month ago 
to first place caused investors to dump Ecuadorean bonds last week 
amid fears the former economy minister would move the South American 
nation into a leftist alliance with Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia.

U.S. officials and Chavez -- apparently wary of tilting the race with 
ill-advised comments -- have been silent about the rise of Correa, 
43, who last month called President Bush a "tremendously dimwitted" 
president and vowed to oppose trade talks with Washington.

With 13 presidential candidates competing Sunday, a Nov. 26 runoff 
election is likely. To win in the first round in Ecuador, a candidate 
must either get an outright majority of the valid votes, or receive 
at least 40 percent while the rest of the field trails by at least 10 
percentage points.

Forceful and dynamic, Correa has increasingly attracted undecided 
voters who see him as a fresh face in a field of old-time 
politicians. But the latest polls show his closest rival -- 
billionaire banana magnate Alvaro Noboa -- is gaining as well and now 
has about 23 percent support to Correa's 26 percent.

"There's no way of denying that a Correa victory in the second round 
would be a very significant assault against Washington's Latin 
American policy," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on 
Hemispheric Affairs in Washington. "And it would certainly bring in a 
new recruit for the Chavez bloc at a time when that bloc very much needs one."

Correa's candidacy follows that of other Chavez allies, including 
President Evo Morales of Bolivia, elected last year on a platform of 
opposing U.S.-backed anti-drug efforts in the region, and Ollanta 
Humala, the nationalist who came close to winning Peru's presidency this year.

Birns said the Bush administration doesn't want to "slam the door in 
Correa's face," or inadvertently help his candidacy with a response 
that might fuel already strong anti-U.S. sentiment.

For his part, Chavez could hurt Correa's campaign by openly backing him.

Chavez has been accused of meddling in elections this year in Peru, 
Mexico and Nicaragua, and "his backing can be the kiss of death to a 
candidate," Birns said.

That was the case with Peru's Humala, who won the most votes earlier 
this year in the first round, but was handily defeated in the June 
runoff by center-left President Alan Garcia, who adroitly painted his 
rival as a radical Chavez pawn.

Correa, who has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Illinois, 
opposes resuming stalled free-trade talks with Washington and says he 
would not extend a treaty scheduled to expire in 2009 that lets the 
U.S. military use the Manta air base for drug surveillance flights.

He also wants to cut ties to international lending institutions, 
including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and has 
threatened a moratorium on foreign debt payments unless foreign 
bondholders agree to lower Ecuador's debt service by half.

University of Illinois economics professor Werner Baer, who was on 
the committee that approved Correa's doctorate, said last month that 
his former pupil's anti-U.S. spiel was probably a ploy to get votes.

"I doubt that he would be virulently anti-American like Chavez," Baer 
said, predicting Correa would likely follow the more moderate lead of 
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil.

Correa has been largely ignored by neighboring governments.

But he did raise hackles last week in Colombia, when he said of that 
country's main rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of 
Colombia: "I am not going to call them terrorists. I believe they are 
guerrillas."

Correa later said his remarks "in absolutely no way imply sympathy 
for that group."

He still received an indirect rebuke from Colombia.
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MAP posted-by: Beth Wehrman