Pubdate: Thu, 13 Sep 2007
Source: USA Today (US)
Page: 3A
Copyright: 2007 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc
Contact:  http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/index.htm
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/466
Author: Donna Leinwand, USA TODAY
Related: Front page article 'Cocaine Flow to 26 Cities Curbed' 
http://www.mapinc.org/drugnews/v07.n1059.a07.html
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/coke.htm (Cocaine)
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/meth.htm (Methamphetamine)

DEA HOPEFUL OVER DROP IN COCAINE

But Officials Note Other Disruptions Were Short-Lived

When the price for a kilo of cocaine in Nashville jumped by nearly a 
third five months ago, police knew something was up.

For nearly a decade, the Drug Enforcement Administration says cocaine 
prices have been rock-bottom at about $95 for a gram of pure cocaine. 
So when agents at the DEA heard of the sudden price spikes in 
Nashville, Cleveland, New York, Los Angeles and elsewhere, they began 
investigating.

A tenet of U.S. efforts in the "war on drugs" is keeping drug prices 
high by limiting the supply.

"If the price of cocaine goes up, it might bar entry (into drug use) 
by young people who simply cannot afford it," says DEA intelligence 
chief Tony Placido. "The real challenge will be how long we can 
preserve this trend."

The DEA found a broad drop in the quantity of cocaine at the top 
levels of the supply chain in every region of the country except the 
Pacific Northwest, according to a recently declassified DEA analysis.

The analysis found the most significant decreases in supply and 
largest price increases for big suppliers rather than street-level 
dealers, suggesting dealers may be selling cocaine that is less pure 
to keep prices stable for regular customers.

Prices varied throughout the country:

.In New York, the price for a kilo of cocaine doubled from $17,000 to 
$34,000, Placido says.

.In Los Angeles, where a kilo has cost around $13,000 for nearly a 
decade, prices edged up to $19,000 over the past year, says DEA 
Special Agent Sarah Pullen, the agency's Los Angeles spokeswoman. 
"There's a definite reduction in supply," she says. "Organizations 
are having a hard time getting it from their sources in South America."

.In Nashville, police in April noticed a kilo that sold for $18,000 
to $20,000 a year ago was selling for $27,000, police spokesman Don 
Aaron says. Supply also decreased. "And we think a major explanation 
for that is the strengthening of the border between Mexico and Texas 
and Arizona," he says.

Prices in Nashville have decreased slightly in the past two weeks, 
but price fluctuations are normal, Aaron adds.

Philadelphia says any decrease in its cocaine market was short-lived.

"We had seen some lulls over the course of the year. We saw some 
tightening up over the market," says a police spokesman, Capt. 
Benjamin Naish. "Cocaine is available. The price is stable."

Peter Reuter, a University of Maryland professor who studies drug 
policy, says it is too early to declare the recent price spikes a 
trend, but he says the odd patterns bear watching.

"What I know of the data supports the notion that there is something 
out there," he says. "There have been these kinds of interruptions 
before and turned out to be short-lived. How permanent this is, there 
is absolutely no way of knowing."

DEA analysts examined 11,538 domestic cocaine samples tested in their 
labs from April 2005 though June 2007. On average at all levels of 
the supply chain, the price jumped 24% between January and June 2007, 
Placido says.

Midlevel wholesale cocaine purchases from 1 to 10 ounces showed the 
largest price increases -- 33% -- from $53.09 to $70.30 per pure 
gram. Street-level sales up to 10 grams increased 15%, from $145.42 
to $166.90 per pure gram.

To confirm their findings, DEA analysts also studied 6,613 cocaine 
purchases and seizures logged by the Justice Department's National 
Forensic Laboratory. They found a significant decrease in the purity 
of the cocaine seized.

A June 5 report from the Justice Department's National Drug 
Intelligence Center also concluded the cocaine supply had decreased 
in several big and midsize East Coast markets over the previous four 
months as prices increased.

It attributed the market disruption to large seizures of cocaine in 
transit from South America to Mexico and major busts of key players 
in Mexican drug-trafficking groups.

Prices for methamphetamine rose 37% this year to $194.25 per gram, a 
separate, recently declassified DEA brief says.

Although the prices have not reached the peak levels seen in the 
first six months of 2006, DEA analysts say it may be another 
indication that traffickers are having a tough time moving their 
products through Mexico.

About 80% of methamphetamine in the USA is from large labs in Mexico.

DEA analysts examined drug busts, chatter among traffickers and 
cultivation to determine what caused a drop in supply. Agents had 
made several large busts in the previous six months, but not enough 
to cause a severe decline, Placido says.

Analysts found that Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, the main source 
countries for the U.S. cocaine supply, are growing and shipping the 
same amount of cocaine as in previous years.

"There is not more or less cocaine entering the pipeline," Placido 
says. Instead, he says, Mexican authorities apparently are stopping 
the cocaine before it gets to the USA.

Reuter says this isn't the first time the Mexicans have gotten tough 
on traffickers. "The Mexican government is clearly cracking down, but 
the government has cracked down before to no effect," Reuter says. 
"It's sort of early days for declaring that something important has happened."

Eventually, drug traffickers will develop new routes to get around 
whatever is stopping them, says Alfred Blumstein, a professor who 
specializes in criminology at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

"It's a resilient process," Blumstein says. "I would anticipate that 
over a period of time, like six months to a year," the drug 
traffickers will "be back in shape."
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MAP posted-by: Richard Lake