Pubdate: Mon, 17 May 2010
Source: Dallas Morning News (TX)
Copyright: 2010 The Dallas Morning News, Inc.
Contact: http://www.dallasnews.com/cgi-bin/lettertoed.cgi
Website: http://www.dallasnews.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/117
Author: Alfredo Corchado, The Dallas Morning News
Bookmark: http://mapinc.org/topic/Juarez
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/topic/Mexico
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/people/Felipe+Calderon

NO END IN SIGHT IN MEXICO CARTEL WAR

Turf Battle in Juarez May Take Years to Play Out, Authorities Say

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico - Even after thousands of drug-related slayings 
in this border city, U.S. and Mexican law enforcement officials say 
that a war between rival cartels could continue for years - 
contradicting reports that one group had gained control over a key 
smuggling route.

"Our intelligence does not indicate that the Sinaloa cartel has taken 
over the Juarez corridor. However, they are making serious attempts 
to do so," said Joseph M. Arabit, special agent in charge of the Drug 
Enforcement Administration office in El Paso. "The upper hand changes 
from week to week because this is an ongoing struggle."

His assessment contradicts recent reports suggesting that Joaqumn "El 
Chapo" Guzman, head of the Sinaloa cartel, had won a two-year battle 
over the rival Juarez cartel, resulting in the deaths of nearly 6,000 
people in this battered city across the border from El Paso.

President Barack Obama will host Mexican President Felipe Calderon a 
state dinner Wednesday at the White House, and Mexico's drug violence 
will probably be high on the agenda, along with immigration reform, 
experts say.

At a recent hearing in Washington, Anthony Placido, assistant 
administrator for intelligence at the DEA, warned that the pace of 
killings would continue and could get worse. "We must also manage 
expectations, as we anticipate that the gruesome violence in Mexico 
may get worse before it gets better," he said.

Officials have provided a range of estimates for how long the 
violence might continue at current levels. "Two years is optimistic," 
one senior U.S. law enforcement official said. "We're making 
significant headway, but this will take time - years."

The bleak assessment is due in part to the personal nature of the 
drug war, especially in Ciudad Juarez. Guzman, of the Sinaloa cartel, 
is locked in what experts say is a personal feud with a former ally, 
Vicente Carrillo Fuentes of the Juarez cartel. Authorities say that 
the feud between Carrillo Fuentes and Guzman dates to at least 2004, 
when Guzman allegedly ordered the killing of Rodolfo Carrillo 
Fuentes, Vicente's brother. Guzman's son, Edgar, was killed in May 
2008, allegedly on the orders of Carrillo Fuentes.

Before their falling-out, the two leaders and their organizations 
were allied as part of a larger organization known as the Federation, 
in which different criminal organizations controlled different 
regions of the country.

Killing Frenzy

Today, despite the reported urging of former members of the 
Federation to mend fences for the sake of business, their feud is 
generating a killing frenzy, U.S.-Mexican law enforcement officials say.

Southeast of Juarez, in the area known as the valley of Juarez, the 
Sinaloa cartel recently used threats and intimidation to run nearly 
everyone out of the tiny towns near the border. Many fled across the 
Rio Grande to farming communities in Texas. Others left for Ciudad 
Juarez. The incident led some experts to declare the region "Chapo's land."

But within days, Carrillo Fuentes' gunmen, known as La Linea, 
retaliated and fought to reclaim the turf.

This week, killings haven't been limited just to the valley or to 
Juarez, but have also resumed in northeastern Juarez, an area that 
many believed was also in the firm control of the Sinaloa cartel. At 
least seven people, mostly teens, have been killed in the past week.

"Both regions remain up for grabs, just like Ciudad Juarez," said a 
senior intelligence official, adding that a situation that developed 
over decades will not be resolved in a year or even two.

"The VCF organization has been in Juarez for generations," the senior 
U.S. intelligence official said, referring to the Vicente Carrillo 
Fuentes group. "They're entrenched, hard-core and brutal. They're not 
going anywhere so fast."

Lucinda Vargas, an economist and community organizer, said any claim 
of victory must be backed up by "someone's head on display at the 
main plaza in Juarez for all to see and believe. I don't mean to 
sound crass, but that's the reality in Juarez today."

Gunfire Every Day

Daily gunbattles are carried out mostly by teens motivated not just 
by orders from drug bosses, but also by revenge and greed.

The killers make anywhere from $200 per hit or per week, authorities 
say. And in a time of economic hardship, with unemployment hovering 
at 20 percent, jobs for hit men are plentiful. For the year, more 
than 950 people have been slain in Juarez, about 10 percent of them 
noncombatants, according to government figures. More than 30 of the 
dead were police officers.

Mexican officials have estimated that as many as 15,000 gang members 
- - mainly from two groups, Artistas Asesinos and Barrio Aztecas - 
operate in Juarez, a city of 1.3 million people, as affiliates of the cartels.

Differing Outlooks

Some U.S. authorities - and even one longtime critic of Caldersn's 
hard-line strategy - expressed confidence that the arrival of more 
than 2,000 newly U.S.-trained federal agents will improve security in Juarez.

"I'm beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel," said human 
rights activist Gustavo de la Rosa, who has led criticism of abuses 
by the military. "It's not going to happen tomorrow or the day after, 
but things are improving because the federal government is attacking 
organized crime, but just as importantly taking steps to improve 
security for residents. These are two different, separate battles 
that are being waged simultaneously."

Others voice skepticism.

"There's no end in sight, because in spite of the military and feds 
being brought to Juarez, there has been no significant reform," said 
Howard Campbell, an anthropologist and drug expert at the University 
of Texas at El Paso. "Mexican law enforcement, at least in Juarez, is 
still basically a protection and extortion racket. The citizens and 
the drug business are the cash cows."
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