Pubdate: Thu, 8 Jul 2010
Source: Los Angeles Times (CA)
Page: AA3
Copyright: 2010 Los Angeles Times
Contact: http://mapinc.org/url/bc7El3Yo
Website: http://www.latimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/248
Author: John Hoeffel
Note: Highlighted below the headline is this quote: 'If you took it 
out of the statute book and dealt with it like parsley, yes, it would 
plummet.' Dale Gieringer, National Organization for the Reform of 
Marijuana Laws
Referenced: The Rand study http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP315/
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/find?115 (Cannabis - California)
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/topic/Proposition+19

LEGALIZATION COULD SLASH THE PRICE OF POT

Cost Could Drop to $38 Per Ounce If Proposition 19 Passes, Study Finds.

California's cash crop could become dirt cheap if the state legalizes 
marijuana.

Researchers associated with the Rand Corp.'s Drug Policy Research 
Center said Wednesday that not much is certain about the potential 
impact of Proposition 19 except that the price of California's 
choicest weed could plunge more than 80%, down from $300 to $450 per 
ounce to about $38.

"That's a significant drop," said Beau Kilmer, co-director of the 
center. "We're very clear about the fact that the price will go down."

The implications of such a drop would be profound. Kilmer and four 
other researchers who analyzed marijuana legalization said 
consumption would rise, but they could not determine with any 
certainty by how much. "We cannot rule out increases of 50% to 100% 
or perhaps higher, but we just don't know," he said.

Such a low price could also affect pot prices across the nation, 
encourage marijuana tourism in the state, increase the amount of pot 
shipped out of state, disrupt the smuggling of marijuana from Mexico 
and stimulate an underground market designed to avoid high taxes that 
might be imposed.

Rand, the Santa Monica-based nonpartisan research institute, had five 
prominent drug policy experts spend about six months examining what 
might happen to marijuana use and tax revenues if Californians 
approve the measure on the November ballot or the Legislature passes 
a bill introduced by Assemblyman Tom Ammiano (D- San Francisco) that 
would legalize pot and impose a $50-per-ounce tax.

The report called "Altered State?" is the most scholarly examination 
of the issue so far. It is likely to be scrutinized and cited by both 
sides in the debate.

"The uncertainty and the potential chaotic nature of what could 
happen here just totally derails this initiative," said Roger 
Salazar, the spokesman for Public Safety First, one of four 
opposition committees that plan to fight the initiative. "Outside of 
the prices going down there is nothing else that is certain here and 
certainly not worth having the state of California become the first 
entity in the world to completely legalize production and sales of marijuana."

Stephen Gutwillig, the California director of the Drug Policy 
Alliance, said: "The current system is loaded with the certainty of 
mass arrest, racist enforcement and boondoggle law enforcement 
expenses to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars," he said.

The report noted that it was impossible to predict tax revenues from 
the initiative, which leaves that decision to cities and counties, 
but concluded that revenues from a statewide $50-per-ounce tax could 
range from $650 million to $1.49 billion.

To calculate the price drop, researchers looked at the cost of 
growing marijuana in a 1,500-square-foot house. The researchers 
concluded that the wages paid to employees who tend the crop would 
slip from as much as $25 per hour to no more than $10, just a little 
above what nursery laborers earn.

The report is likely to make it even harder for legalization 
advocates to persuade the state's growers and suppliers, particularly 
in the Emerald Triangle, to support the initiative. The triangle area 
includes Humboldt, Mendocino and Trinity counties.

Dale Gieringer, director of the state chapter of the National 
Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws, who has also looked at 
the issue, said the calculated price drop sounded reasonable, but he 
said it would not occur overnight. "It will descend slowly, is the 
likely scenario," he said. "If you took it out of the statute book 
and dealt with it like parsley, yes, it would plummet."

He acknowledged that consumption would probably increase if 
Proposition 19 passes, but said it is half the level it was in the 
late 1970s. "Fads come and go, drugs come in and out of fashion," he 
said. "I think we're in for a short-term increase in marijuana 
consumption regardless of whether the initiative passes."

Researchers also looked at estimates of the cost of enforcing 
marijuana laws in California, which range from $200 million to $1.9 
billion, and put it at "probably less than $300 million." They also 
concluded that it is not possible to determine whether increased use 
would lead to more drugged driving accidents and to more use of 
harder drugs, such as cocaine, finding that the research is inconclusive. 
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MAP posted-by: Richard Lake