Pubdate: Sun, 8 Aug 2010
Source: Province, The (CN BC)
Copyright: 2010 Canwest Publishing Inc.
Contact: http://www.canada.com/theprovince/letters.html
Website: http://www.canada.com/theprovince/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/476
Author: Douglas Quan, Postmedia News
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/mjcn.htm (Marijuana - Canada)
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/find?115 (Cannabis - California)

CANADIAN MARIJUANA PROFITS COULD GO UP IN SMOKE SOON

Referendum on Legalization Is on the Way

A looming referendum in California on whether to legalize marijuana 
has fuelled a debate among bloggers and pundits over this question: 
Could legalization in the United States cripple the Canadian economy?

In a column on the Guardian's website this week, B.C. writer Douglas 
Haddow writes that a move to legalization would be "devastating to 
the Canadian economy, halting the flow of billions of dollars from 
the U.S. into Canada."

B.C. marijuana activist Marc Emery -- the self-styled "Prince of Pot" 
who is awaiting sentencing in the U.S. for distributing cannabis 
seeds -- recently told a Vancouver indie website that "the homegrown 
market will evaporate."

Are they just blowing smoke? Not necessarily, some academics say.

Marijuana production generates at least $3 billion to $4 billion in 
B.C. alone -- due, in large part, to heavy demand from pot heads 
south of the border, said Darryl Plecas, a criminology professor at 
the University of the Fraser Valley in Abbotsford.

Plecas said he estimates that about 70 per cent of all marijuana 
produced in B.C. is sent to the U.S. and much of it goes to California.

"[Producers] are probably frantically looking where they can ship it 
to" besides California, he said.

Eugene Oscapella, criminology lecturer at the University of Ottawa 
and founding member of the Canadian Foundation for Drug Policy, said 
there is no doubt that if California legalizes marijuana, producers 
there will be able to sell the product more cheaply -- thus making it 
difficult for producers here to compete and driving some out of business.

"Increased availability for a lesser price in that country will have 
an effect on suppliers in Canada," Oscapella said.

Of particular concern, he said, are the mom-and-pop producers in 
rural parts of B.C. who turned to marijuana as a way to make ends 
meet after the forest industry declined.

Other observers, however, are more circumspect about how crippling 
legalization would be for Canadian producers, pointing out that "B. 
C. Bud" still enjoys a reputation in many circles as "the 
Rolls-Royce" of marijuana and that there are many other U.S. states 
- -- besides California -- that covet Canadian-grown marijuana.

In addition, Mexico, which exports far more pot to California than 
Canada, would probably be stung a lot harder, they say.

Even as the Canadian dollar has appreciated -- making Canadian-grown 
marijuana much more expensive for Americans to buy -- the industry 
has continued to thrive, said Stephen Easton, a professor of 
economics at Simon Fraser University and a senior fellow at the 
Fraser Institute.

"It's a very resilient industry and very adaptive," Easton said.

Chuck Doucette, a retired RCMP staff-sergeant who specialized in drug 
enforcement, adds the black-market exchange of Canadian marijuana for 
U.S. cash and cocaine is so "thoroughly entrenched" that it is 
unlikely that those lines will disappear overnight.

The California marijuana initiative is headed to a vote in November. 
Even if it passes, it is likely that it will go through a series of 
court challenges, experts say.

An Angus Reid poll earlier this year showed that 53 per cent of 
Canadians favour legalizing marijuana -- regulating and taxing it 
like alcohol and tobacco.

Supporters say they hope passage of the initiative in California will 
create a domino effect that leads to more lax pot laws in other parts 
of the U.S. and in Canada.

In addition to raising huge amounts of tax revenue, legalization 
would severely undercut organized-crime groups and free up police 
resources to tackle more serious crimes, they say.

Marijuana and cocaine are consistently reported to be the illicit 
drugs most frequently trafficked by organized-crime groups, according 
to annual RCMP reports assessing the drug situation in Canada.

But opponents of legalization say widespread use of marijuana could 
lead to use of more dangerous drugs, worsen addiction problems and 
send mixed messages to young people.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government has 
repeatedly said it has no intention of decriminalizing or legalizing marijuana.
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MAP posted-by: Richard Lake