Pubdate: Wed, 13 Oct 2010
Source: Los Angeles Times (CA)
Page: AA1, continued on page AA5
Copyright: 2010 Los Angeles Times
Contact:  http://www.latimes.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/248
Author: John Hoeffel
Referenced: The report 
http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2010/RAND_OP325.pdf
Cited: Proposition 19 http://yeson19.com/
Bookmark: http://mapinc.org/find?272 (Proposition 19)

Election 2010

PROP. 19 MAY NOT HURT DRUG CARTELS

Report Says Legalizing Pot in California Will Not Seriously Curtail 
Mexican Gang Profits.

Proposition 19, which would partially legalize marijuana in 
California, would do little to curtail the violent Mexican 
organizations that smuggle it across the border, according to a new 
study by drug policy researchers that takes aim at one of the main 
arguments proponents have made for the initiative.

The report released Tuesday by Rand Corp., the nonpartisan research 
institute in Santa Monica, estimates that legalized marijuana could 
displace the Mexican marijuana sold in California, but concludes that 
would erase no more than 2% to 4% of the revenues the gangs receive 
from drug exports.

"It's hard to imagine a scenario where Prop. 19 has a dramatic 
influence on their revenues. We just don't see that happening," said 
Beau Kilmer, co-director of Rand's Drug Policy Research Center.

The researchers said the only way California's legal pot could cut 
significantly into cartel revenues is if it were sold across the 
country. They were skeptical that would happen. "It's very hard to 
imagine that the feds would sit idly by and just let California 
marijuana dominate the country," Kilmer said.

Much of the analysis rests on the conclusion that drug organizations 
earn far less from marijuana exported to the United States than 
previously estimated. Researchers put that income at about $1.5 
billion, while federal government reports have set it as high as $14.3 billion.

Proposition 19 would allow cities and counties to authorize the 
cultivation and sales of marijuana. It's unclear how many would do 
that, but some cities, such as Oakland, are already poised to approve 
it. It's also unclear whether the Obama administration would allow 
it, since marijuana is illegal under federal law. The researchers do 
not address those issues.

The initiative would also allow people 21 and older to possess as 
much as an ounce and grow up to 25 square feet of marijuana.

The initiative on the Nov. 2 ballot has triggered a serious debate 
south of the border, where a four-year campaign against drug gangs 
has left about 30,000 people dead. Last week, Mexican President 
Felipe Calderon stressed his opposition, saying that the U.S. has 
done too little to suppress consumption. But Calderon's predecessor, 
Vicente Fox, supports the initiative and has called for legalization in Mexico.

Stephen Gutwillig, California director of the Drug Policy Alliance 
and an advocate of the initiative, said marijuana prohibition has 
failed because it has created a massive underground economy 
controlled by violent criminals. "Ending marijuana prohibition, 
bringing the multibillion-dollar marijuana market into the light of 
day and under the rule of law, will deal a major blow to criminal 
syndicates on both sides of the border," he said. "California can't 
put these cartels out of business by itself, but Prop. 19 is a 
crucial first step."

President Obama's drug czar, Gil Kerlikowske, embraced the report's 
conclusion that Proposition 19 would not put the cartels out of 
business. "When you're a thug and a criminal and a killer, you're not 
going to get your MBA and work for a company in Mexico," he said. 
Kerlikowske, a former Seattle police chief, said that with drug use 
increasing, more emphasis should be placed on protecting young people 
from illegal drugs, including marijuana.

The Rand analysis dismissed a frequently cited U.S. government 
estimate that marijuana sales make up about 60% of cartel export 
revenues. Marijuana revenues fall between 15% and 26%, according to 
the report.The researchers could find no documentation to support the 
higher estimate.

"This 60% figure is a truly mythical number, one that appeared out of 
nowhere and that has acquired great authority," they wrote. "This 
figure should not be taken seriously."

Kerlikowske said it was based on outdated information and said he is 
pressing for better data collection. "It's pretty hard to foster 
support for public policy if your numbers are soft," he said.

The report notes that U.S. government estimates of marijuana 
production "have long been inconsistent and sometimes implausible." 
To illustrate the absurdity of one production estimate, the 
researchers calculated that regular users would have to smoke a joint 
every two hours they are awake.

As part of their study, which they acknowledge is replete with 
uncertainties that could alter the results, the researchers made 
numerous calculations such as determining the average weight of a 
joint: 0.46 grams.

The researchers conclude that Mexican marijuana, which is lower in 
quality and and contains less of the main psychoactive ingredient 
than California-grown pot, has a U.S. market share between 40% and 67%.

Comparing the Mexican drug gangs to the American Mafia, the 
researchers said that they would find other businesses to replace 
pot, just as the Mafia replaced bootlegging when alcohol prohibition 
ended. In the short term, they concluded, violence might even 
increase as gangs fight over smaller revenues. 
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MAP posted-by: Richard Lake