Pubdate: Thu, 4 Nov 2010
Source: Capitol Weekly (Sacramento, CA)
Copyright: 2010 Capitol Weekly Group
Contact: http://www.capitolweekly.net/contact/?_c=xtakf2zb939jem
Website: http://www.capitolweekly.net/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/4194
Author: Malcolm Maclachlan
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/find?115 (Cannabis - California)
Bookmark: http://www.mapinc.org/topic/Proposition+19

POT LEGALIZATION LIKELY TO BE BACK IN 2012

When the team behind Proposition 19 pot legalization measure conceded 
last night, it was with a strong message that they would be back for 
another try soon.

In fact, they sounded a lot like Proposition 8 opponents, who pledged 
they would soon be back with an initiative to legalize same-sex 
marriage. And both could be back in 2012, for the same reason - 
demographic trends are on their side.

Prop. 19 lost by 7.8 points, or 566,000 votes. Demographic trends 
alone suggest much of this margin will disappear in the next two years.

Exit polling conducted by the Los Angeles Times found that over 
two-thirds of voters over 65 opposed Prop. 19. Nearly that many 
voters between 18 and 24, 64 percent, supported the initiative. This 
is actually more of an age division than existed for Prop. 8, which 
was supported by about 60 percent of voters over 65 and opposed by a 
similar number of voters under 30.

"They won by scaring the old people," said Terry Nelson, a former 
federal agent who is a member of the group Law Enforcement Against 
Prohibition. The No on 19 website, for instance, prominently featured 
an image of a wrecked school bus turned on its side.

Assuming this election's voters continue to vote the same way each 
time there is a pot measure, this factor alone would chop at least 
100,000 votes a year off of the No on 19 margin over two years.

It's also not clear that everyone who voted no on 19 would vote the 
same way on a measure with different language. The initiative was 
criticized by some for not allowing employers to fire employees who 
test positive for marijuana. Medical marijuana patients and 
dispensary owners criticized it for not building in enough 
protections for current medical cannabis patients.

"I'm not opposed to marijuana legalization if it is done in the right 
way," said Roger Salazar, the chief spokesman for No on 19.

Meanwhile, nearly a million people currently aged 16 and 17 will turn 
18 over that time. Assuming a quarter of them turn out for the 2012 
race which will determine the reelection of President Barack Obama, 
and that at least 64 percent vote for legalization, this could cut 
70,000 or more votes off the No on 19 margin.

Prop. 8 lost by a smaller percentage, 4.5 points, but this equaled a 
slightly larger number of votes, 600,000 due to the higher turnout 
presidential election of 2008, where over 11 million Californians 
cast ballots. Same-sex marriage supporters opted not to come back to 
the ballot this year, and are likely to instead opt for the 
presidential election in 2012, where more young voters are likely to come out.

But the marijuana legalization side has another factor working in 
their favor. Where those who want same-sex marriage were pushing for 
a "no" vote in 2008, next time out they will have to push for a 
harder-to-get "yes." Pot proponents would be pushing again for a 
"yes," and doing so with the 46 percent they got this time out as a 
starting point.

It may be a different team the next time out. Even as Richard Lee, 
the founder of Oaksterdam University and the driving force behind 
Prop. 19, was inviting his parents onstage and vowing to fight on, he 
also acknowledged that he did not have the funds for another run.

Still, money is likely to show up. Billionaire financier George 
Soros, a frequent funder of progressive causes, put in $1 million 
late in the campaign - more than triple the amount that the No on 19 
campaign gathered for the entire year.

There will also likely be pot liberalization measures on the ballot 
in several places around the country. California Democratic Party 
chairman John Burton, who spoke out several times in favor of Prop. 
19, and others have identified these as a way to get out the youth 
vote, though this week's results didn't show that.

Any repeat of Prop. 19, though, will likely go forward once again 
without high profile Democratic support. All the top Democratic 
candidates in California - from Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer on down 
- - were on the record against it. Eric Holder, U.S. attorney general 
under Obama, made repeated threats to "vigorously enforce" federal 
marijuana laws.

Dan Rush, a Democratic Party delegate and a union representative with 
United Food & Commercial Workers Union who was a leading spokesman 
for Prop. 19, said he understands why so many top Democrats ran away 
from the measure. And, he added, most voters understand.

"The top of the ticket didn't need any more missiles fired at them," 
Rush said. "Proposition 19 is a missile that would have been used by 
Meg Whitman, Steve Cooley and Abel Maldonado." 
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MAP posted-by: Richard Lake