Pubdate: Thu, 13 Jan 2011 Source: Wall Street Journal (US) Copyright: 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Contact: http://www.wsj.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/487 Authors: Jose de Cordoba and David Luhnow IN MEXICO, DEATH TOLL IN DRUG WAR HITS RECORD MEXICO CITY-The drug-related death toll in Mexico climbed to 15,273 in 2010, the highest casualty rate since the government launched an assault on powerful cartels in 2006, Mexican officials said. The staggering toll-higher than combat-related deaths in places like Iraq and Afghanistan-shows how Mexico is struggling to turn the tide on drug cartels that are fighting each other to control lucrative smuggling routes to the U.S. "We all know we're going through difficult times in matters of public safety," President Felipe Calderon said in a televised speech minutes after the figures were announced. He urged Mexicans to be patient with his government's assault on cartels. The figures, which don't include killings from crimes of passion, show Mexico is fast becoming one of the most violent countries. By comparison, there are about 17,000 homicides annually in the U.S., according to U.S. government figures, a country with three times Mexico's population. Analysts say the sharp rise in deaths is partly due to the government's campaign against gangs, including the killing and capture of dozens of top cartel figures in the past two years. That pressure on the cartels has led to growing fights among the organizations over new turf. "Every time you remove major capos, you have rising fragmentation and spikes in violence," said Bruce Bagley, a drug expert at the University of Miami. Mr. Bagley said he expected violence to continue to rise, although the fragmentation of the cartels is good news in the longer term because their ability to challenge the state will weaken. The rate of killing in Mexico's drug war has escalated steadily since Mr. Calderon was inaugurated in December 2006, rising from an estimated 2,800 deaths in 2007 to roughly 9,500 in 2009 to nearly 15,300 last year. The new figures bring the total number of deaths during Mr. Calderon's term to 34,612, according to the government. If the violence holds at current levels for this year and next, Mexico would end Mr. Calderon's term in 2012 with 65,000 drug-related killings. The official toll is significantly higher than previous estimates. At the end of November, Mexican Attorney General Arturo Chavez said there had been 12,456 drug-related fatalities during the first 11 months of the year. The new data come as more Mexicans grow pessimistic about the drug war. This week, a group of leftist intellectuals called on the government to call off its offensive against drug gangs. A new survey shows 54% of Mexicans think violence would diminish if the government struck a deal with drug lords. In a meeting with civil society on Wednesday to discuss the drug war, Mr. Calderon told Mexicans his government was trying to fix decades of neglect of the country's law-enforcement institutions, such as the police. "I am convinced that if we had not acted, the criminals would have gained even more ground and would have filled most of the spaces in this country, even the highest spheres of power," he said. The Calderon administration made big strides in capturing major drug traffickers during the past year. Of a list of 37 major drug traffickers published last March, the government has killed or captured 17, Mr. Calderon said on Wednesday. High-profile arrests have included Edgar "La Barbie" Valdez and Sergio "El Grande" Villarreal. Security forces also killed three major players: the Sinaloa cartel's Ignacio Coronel, La Familia cartel's Nazario "El Chayo" Moreno, and the Gulf Cartel's Antonio Ezequiel "Tony Tormenta" Cardenas. While the killings and arrests suggest Mexico may be generating better intelligence against drug gangs, or using U.S. intelligence more quickly, it has yet to translate to a drop in violence year to year. National Security spokesman Alejandro Poire said despite last year's carnage, the violence may soon decline. Killings peaked last year during the third quarter, and fell 10% in the last quarter of the year from the previous quarter. Mr. Poire said he couldn't predict whether the decline in killings was temporary.Mr. Poire said 50% of the drug-related killings were concentrated in three of Mexico's 31 states and in 73 of the country's almost 2,500 municipalities. The most violent city: Ciudad Juarez. Mexico's most violent state by far is Chihuahua within which lies Ciudad Juarez, which sits across the Rio Grande from El Paso, Texas. Ciudad Juarez has become a battleground for cartels which employ small armies of gang members as assassins as they fight a bloody turf war to control routes to the U.S. as well as a booming local drug market. The battle between the local Juarez cartel-which is defending its turf against an assault by the Sinaloa cartel, led by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, considered Mexico's most powerful drug lord-has turned Ciudad Juarez, site of many assembly plants which manufacture products for export to the U.S., into one of the world's deadliest cities, with a murder rate of about 250 for every 100,000 people. Sinaloa, Mr. Guzman's home state in western Mexico, is next, followed by Tamaulipas, a state that borders Texas and Mexico's gulf coast. Violence in Tamaulipas surged last year after the Gulf Cartel, which has long controlled the state, split with a group known as the Zetas, a criminal group originally formed by Mexican army deserters who acted as enforcers for the Gulf Cartel. The violence between the two groups has also spilled into next door Nuevo Leon state, turning its capital of Monterrey, Mexico's top business city, into a war zone. This year, drug violence has flared in the faded Pacific beach resort of Acapulco, where more than 31 people were killed during the weekend in internecine warfare between drug gangs fighting for control of the port. Fifteen of the dead were decapitated. - --- MAP posted-by: Jo-D