Pubdate: Fri, 01 Jun 2012
Source: Arizona Republic (Phoenix, AZ)
Copyright: 2012 The Arizona Republic
Contact: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/opinions/sendaletter.html
Website: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/24
Author: Daniel Gonzalez

DRUG WAR KEY ISSUE IN MEXICO ELECTIONS

As Mexicans prepare to choose a new president one month from today, 
the election has turned into a referendum of sorts on President 
Felipe Calderon's war on the drug cartels, an effort that some 
Mexicans applaud as long overdue and others blame for escalating 
violence in the country.

The primary question for the three leading candidates seeking to 
succeed Calderon is whether they would continue to use the military 
to confront the cartels, as Calderon has since he launched a 
U.S.-backed crackdown on the drug-trafficking networks in 2006, or 
pursue a different strategy, experts say.

The candidates have yet to offer concrete proposals about how they 
would reduce cartel-related violence, which has resulted in the 
deaths of more than 50,000 people and emerged as the issue of 
overwhelming concern for Mexicans living on both sides of the border.

"Public safety is the big issue. It's what everyone is talking 
about," said Jaime Aguila, a history professor at Arizona State 
University who studies Mexican politics. "But while the candidates 
promise they will improve public safety, they are vague on the details."

Many in the United States -- particularly in border states such as 
Arizona -- are paying close attention to the race because the outcome 
could affect relations between the countries.

Besides sharing a 2,000-mile border, Mexico and the United States are 
also intertwined economically and socially. Mexico is the 
second-largest market for U.S. exports and the third-largest source 
of imports. What's more, nearly 12 million Mexicans live in the 
United States, and the U.S. has more than 30 million people of Mexican descent.

How the next president, who is limited to one six-year term, will 
deal with the violence is especially important in border states like 
Arizona, where large numbers of Mexicans travel regularly to visit 
relatives in Mexico and where law-enforcement officials are concerned 
about drug violence spreading into this country. The U.S. has given 
Mexico hundreds of millions of dollars to fight the cartels.

Most of the violence has been concentrated in eight states considered 
key drug-trafficking areas, among them Chihuahua, Sinaloa and 
Tamaulipas, but it has spread to other states, including Nuevo Leon, 
where 49 headless or mutilated bodies were recently found outside the 
city of Monterrey.

Two weeks ago, the police chief of San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora, 
across the border from San Luis, Ariz., was shot and killed as he 
drove away from his home in a city that was about to be lauded as one 
of the state's safest.

"This is really Mexico's 9/11. It has really stunned Mexicans, and 
this is a country that is used to a certain level of violence," said 
Erik Lee, associate director of ASU's North American Center for 
Transborder Studies.

The top issue

The economy, job creation and privatization of the national oil 
industry are all major issues in the race. But they have been 
overshadowed by drug violence, said Christopher Wilson, an associate 
with the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, a nonpartisan 
think tank in Washington, D.C.

"Certainly, there is a lot of concern in border states about the 
amount of drugs crossing through, and there are family ties that 
people have to a lot of border communities on the Mexican side of the 
border, so there is a natural concern for security on that side of 
the border as well," Wilson said.

All three candidates have promised to reduce drug violence, but they 
differ on how they would go about it, Wilson said. The candidates are 
scheduled to participate in their second debate on June 10.

Enrique Pena Nieto, the front-runner, doesn't want to continue using 
the military to battle the cartels but has been unclear about how 
soon he would make such a change, Wilson said.

"He sort of stands in the middle on that," Wilson said. "There is not 
a clear message of getting the military out, but I have heard him 
make reference to that. But he is not talking about getting the 
military out too soon."

Pena Nieto favors beefing up the federal police force to focus on 
crimes that have a "high social impact," such as murders, kidnappings 
and extortion, Wilson said. His critics, however, fear Pena Nieto 
would go back to the old days of the government cutting deals with 
the cartels instead of taking them on.

He is a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the 
PRI in Mexico, which ruled the country for 71 years until 2000, when 
Vicente Fox of the National Action Party was elected.

Josefina Vazquez Mota, a member of the ruling National Action Party, 
or PAN, represents the status quo, although she has tried to 
distinguish herself from Calderon, Wilson said. She favors a 
continued military presence until the national police force is 
equipped to gradually replace it, Wilson said.

"She says she would like to see the military not be part of the fight 
but that is not going to be able to happen until there is a strong 
national police force to relieve them," Wilson said.

The third candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the 
Democratic Revolution, or PRD, is focused on getting the military out 
of the battle with the cartels.

Instead, he wants to try to rid the government and justice system of 
corruption. "He sees it as one of the key ways of dealing with the 
security issue, cleaning up the police force, cleaning up politics," 
Wilson said.

Instead of battling the cartels, Lopez Obrador, who narrowly lost to 
Calderon six years ago, also wants to devote government resources to 
social programs.

"He says (the government) needs to tackle this problem by the roots, 
which are jobs and economic development and opportunities for people, 
because he sees people as choosing to go into the illicit drug or 
crime business out of a lack of other opportunities," Wilson said.

Voter apathy

There are 524,000 Mexicans in Arizona, which has the fourth-largest 
Mexican population of any U.S. state. Of those, 482,000 are of voting 
age, which is 18 in Mexico, according to the Migration Policy 
Institute, a research center in Washington, D.C.

Just 2,324 Mexicans in Arizona have registered to vote by mail, 
according to Mexico's federal election agency. Six years ago, 1,121 
Mexicans from Arizona cast mail-in ballots.

For many Mexicans living in Arizona, drug violence in Mexico is the 
most important issue in the race. But many see voting as a waste of 
time, despite efforts by the Mexican government to encourage more 
Mexicans living outside the country to participate in the election.

"They are all the same," said Phoenix resident Jose Chacon, 44, 
echoing a common attitude among Mexicans in the U.S. toward Mexican 
politicians.

Chacon said he has no plans to vote. The restaurant cook is from the 
state of Michoacan, where drug-cartel violence is rampant.

He said he agrees with Calderon's crackdown on the cartels but sees 
no end to the bloodshed.

Alejandro Lenero, 37, of Phoenix, is also concerned about security in 
Mexico but is equally pessimistic.

Lenero said he usually supports PAN candidates, but he doesn't have 
confidence that any of the presidential candidates have a solution to 
the drug-violence problem in Mexico.

"My personal opinion is this goes beyond the political parties," he 
said. "I don't think any of them can solve the problem. The problem 
is so many people without employment going for the easy money with 
the drug cartels. First, they have to fix the employment."

Lenero, a component-design engineer, is originally from Guadalajara, 
Mexico's second-largest city. He used to travel to Guadalajara once a 
year with his family to visit relatives, but now, he worries about 
safety during the 24-hour drive.

This summer, his family will drive to Hermosillo and then fly to 
Guadalajara, instead.

"It's a bit scary driving to our own country," he said. "You hear the 
news. You can get kidnapped or robbed, or they can assault you."

U.S. officials weigh in

State and federal law-enforcement officials in Arizona also have been 
keeping an eye on the Mexican presidential elections.

During a congressional-field hearing on controlling international 
drug trafficking held earlier this month in Phoenix, several top 
law-enforcement officials said cooperation with Mexican law 
enforcement increased under the Calderon administration. They hope 
that cooperation will continue under his successor.

With the cooperation of Mexican authorities, the U.S. has indicted 
"hundreds of high-level narcotics traffickers from Mexico," said Doug 
Coleman, special agent in charge of the Arizona office of the Drug 
Enforcement Administration.

"Anything that would change that level of cooperation would be 
extremely damaging," Coleman said.

Rep. Ben Quayle, R-Ariz., who sits on the House Homeland Security 
Committee and hosted the field hearing, said he is concerned that the 
next president of Mexico will back off the Calderon administration's 
current battle with the cartels.

"Will there be a situation where the next president just turns a 
blind eye to the cartels ceding Mexico to the cartels, or will they 
be a willing partner with the United States to combat them? I hope 
it's the latter," Quayle said.

In March, after meeting with the three leading candidates, Vice 
President Joe Biden said he believes Mexico will continue to 
cooperate closely with the United States in battling the cartels.

At the same time, Biden rejected growing calls from leaders in Mexico 
and other Latin American countries for the legalization of drugs as a 
way of reducing drug violence.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom