Pubdate: Thu, 03 Jan 2013
Source: Denver Post (CO)
Copyright: 2013 The Denver Post Corp
Contact:  http://www.denverpost.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/122
Author: John Ingold

MARIJUANA'S LEGALIZATION MAY STIR POT WITH ALCOHOL

In the debate over what marijuana legalization means for Colorado, the
best drug-policy brains in the nation say there is one question
getting short shrift: If people can more easily toke, does that mean
they will drink less?

It is, for now, a question without an answer. But what that answer is,
the experts say, will be a big factor in determining whether marijuana
legalization is worth it.

"A small change in alcohol has a bigger social impact than a large
change in cannabis," said UCLA professor Mark A.R. Kleiman, one of
the authors of the book "Marijuana Legalization: What Everyone Needs
to Know." "So it ought to matter a lot whether the change is in the
right direction or wrong direction."

The legalization of use and pos-session of small amounts of marijuana
for those 21 and older in Colorado and Washington will provide
researchersworldwide with the best chance ever to study the interplay
of alcohol use and marijuana use. The topic iswhat academics refer to
as "cross-price elasticities of demand." It basically means how
changes in the price and accessibility of one substance impact the use
of a different substance.

What researchers will be trying to settle is whether alcohol and
marijuana are substitutes - meaning people use one but not the other -
or whether they are complements-meaning they are used together.

If they are substitutes and people switch from booze to pot, experts
such as Beau Kilmer, the co-director of the RAND Drug Policy Research
Center, say marijuana legalization could be a net benefit for society,
even if problems related to marijuana use increase.

"The social costs of marijuana use really pale in comparison towhatwe
see as the social costs of heavy alcohol consumption," Kilmer said.

He and Kleiman both point to widespread alcohol-fueled violence and
disease as reasons why a slight downtick in alcohol abuse could
outweigh a large uptick in marijuana abuse.

But, if marijuana and alcohol prove to be complements, the problems of
bothwould only be worsened. People driving both drunk and stoned, for
example, are more dangerous than drivers impaired by only one of the
substances.

"What's really potentially harmful is when people are using alcohol
and marijuana together at the same time," Kilmer said.

Researchers have never been able to get a clear picture of the
relationship because, until November, no place had legalized marijuana
broadly enough to cause the pot-price drops needed to make the
analysis. That might not happen in Colorado or Washington, either, if
the federal government squashes forthcoming retail marijuana sales in
the states, Kleiman said.

But two studies out of the University of Colorado Denver provide hints
aboutwhat might happen.

In a paper soon to be published in the Journal of Lawand Economics,
professor Daniel Rees finds that traffic fatalities drop when states
pass medical marijuana laws. Rees also reports a drop in alcohol
consumed by people ages 20-29 in medical-marijuana states.

Professor Benjamin Crost finds a similar relationship in a paper that
argues marijuana use decreases and alcohol use increases after young
people hit the legal drinking age.

"We should expect that the higher availability of marijuana in
Colorado will lead to a decrease in alcohol use among young people,"
Crost wrote in an e-mail.

That's certainly what supporters of marijuana legalization-who
frequently used the campaign message that marijuana is safer than
alcohol - say will happen.

Kilmer, though, cautions that the relationship might be different in
for people of different ages, genders and backgrounds. And Kleiman
points out that the relationship may change over time - as the price
of or stigma surrounding marijuana evolves. That's what makes the
crucial question still so elusive.

"I don't think there's any logical basis for knowing," Kleiman said.
"It's a big, complicated change." 
- ---
MAP posted-by: Jo-D