Pubdate: Sun, 14 Apr 2013
Source: Seattle Times (WA)
Copyright: 2013 Washington Post Writers Group
Contact:  http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/409
Author: Neal Peirce, Washington Post Writers Group
Page: A15

POLL BREAKS FOR LEGALIZED MARIJUANA: WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

For the first time, national polling shows a majority of Americans - 
52 percent of us - favor legalizing marijuana use in the United 
States. Opposition has dropped to 45 percent.

The new figures, in a scientifically conducted survey by the Pew 
Research Center, indicate a dramatic reversal of American public 
opinion. Support for legalizing marijuana has jumped 11 points just since 2010.

Historically, the change is even more dramatic. The first national 
survey on legalizing marijuana - by the Gallup Poll in 1969 - showed 
just 12 percent of Americans then in favor with 84 percent opposed.

So what happens now? Are we about to see a rush of 
marijuana-legalization laws as intense as states' efforts to legalize 
gay marriages? Did last fall's Colorado and Washington votes, making 
marijuana consumption fully legal within their borders - and not just 
for medicinal uses - mark a true watershed?

One would like to think so. With full reform, millions of Americans 
could see their personal preference for marijuana, whether for pain 
relief or just plain fun, move out of the shadows of illegality.

About 800,000 yearly arrests for marijuana possession could be 
averted. We might start to pare our prison populations by hundreds of 
thousands, redeeming lives, reuniting families, saving vast sums of 
public treasure.

Growing marijuana legally would cut deeply into America's massive, 
blood-soaked drug (and gun) trade with Mexico.

Sadly, we may not be so fortunate. Today's swing toward marijuana 
legalization may move much more slowly than the rush to recognition 
and legality of same-sex marriages. Why such a cautious forecast? 
Well, this writer was once burned, seeing reform just around the 
bend. In a 1977 column, I noted nine states had softened their 
marijuana-possession laws from criminal offense to mere civil 
infraction. And that President Carter was asking Congress to reduce 
the federal penalty for an ounce of marijuana from a year in jail to 
a civil fine, probably $100.

Polls indicated some trends toward acceptance - and the recognition 
of prohibition's futility. I could quote C.O. Sessums Jr., president 
of the Mississippi Sheriffs Association: "If we were to round up 
every kid in Sunflower County who smoked marijuana, we wouldn't have 
enough left to hold Sunday school."

So what happened to the 1970s whiff of marijuana reform? Ethan 
Nadelmann of the Drug Policy Alliance gave me an answer: Back then, 
marijuana was relatively new in American culture - mostly practiced 
by a younger generation. Today's world is different: Half of young 
peoples' own parents have tried marijuana. Which makes a huge difference.

So the shift relates to generations, as the new Pew findings 
underscore, noting the contrasting results by age groups - from 
respondents of the "Silent Generation" (Americans born before the end 
of World War II), post-World War II baby boomers (1946 to 1964) 
Generation Xers (1965 to 1980), and finally Millennials (born since 
1980). Here's how many now favor legalizing marijuana: Silent 
generation: 32 percent Baby boomers: 50 percent Generation X: 54 
percent Millennials: 65 percent So there's no doubt where the future 
lies. Indeed, 60 percent of all respondents said the federal 
government shouldn't even try to enforce national law prohibiting 
marijuana use in the states where voters have approved its use.

So if demographics are driving us toward marijuana acceptance, isn't 
legalization poised to spread rapidly, state to state? If so, why 
aren't significant laws crowding legislative calendars?

Perhaps it's fear that the Obama administration might suddenly decide 
to get tough on Colorado and Washington, starting to arrest marijuana 
providers and users in those states. Attorney General Eric Holder has 
been promising but not delivering an administration position on the 
two states' rather bold defiance of existing federal law.

There are real barriers. Quite absurdly, the U.S. government still 
classifies marijuana as a "Schedule I" controlled substance - meaning 
it allegedly has no medical use, strong potential for addiction and 
danger to persons using it.

So the best Holder may be able to do is to declare marijuana 
prosecution a low priority. This would allow some U.S. attorneys to 
go after cases of their own volition.

Eventually the legal logjam has to break, as younger generations gain 
political clout and today's oldsters pass on. States will almost 
assuredly be the leaders, first among them likely those, like 
Colorado and Washington, that opened the door to medical marijuana - 
California, Oregon, Alaska, Maine, Nevada, Hawaii and Massachusetts.

But there could be surprise shifts, even in conservative states. Pew 
found rising support scores in all regions. A website, 
thedailychronic.net, is keeping track. Stay tuned.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom