Pubdate: Mon, 25 Nov 2013
Source: Daily Astorian, The (OR)
Copyright: 2013 The Daily Astorian
Contact:  http://www.dailyastorian.info/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/1629

HOW WILL THE BIG POT EXPERIMENT PLAY OUT?

One Writer Is Not Optimistic, Predicts It 'Will End in Tears'

Washington and Oregon started regulating marijuana in 1923. Ninety 
years later, Washington backed away from treating the plant as an 
illegal drug. There are indications Oregon will follow suit.

In a major article published Nov. 18, The New Yorker's Patrick Radden 
Keefe embarks on a thorough look at how legalization is proceeding in 
our northern neighbor. He concludes, "Washington state discovers that 
it's not so easy to create a legal marijuana economy."

This statement perhaps overstates Washington's goal, which probably 
could be better stated to be "legalizing marijuana in a framework 
that produces ample tax money, replaces the previous black market and 
doesn't increase marijuana use in the state or outside its borders." 
But this more-complex mission statement wouldn't fit in a story headline.

In general, Keefe's article is a useful effort to digest the 
difficulties of two states  the other being Colorado - moving forward 
with ending long-term prohibition of the drug, while the federal 
government and other states continue to prosecute users and sellers 
with varying degrees of zeal.

Some especially apt observations from the story:

Washington's legalization campaign was able to correctly note that 
widespread availability of medical marijuana in the state starting in 
1998 did not cause crime to increase. "The streets were not filled 
with dazed potheads."

Washington is obliged to keep the price of marijuana fairly high, 
since a federal crackdown might result if cheap marijuana is seen to 
be flowing out of state.

But with taxes of 25 percent when the producer sells to the 
processor, 25 percent when the processor sells to the retailer and 35 
percent when the retailer sells to the customer, an expert estimates 
an initial selling price of at least $42 for an eighth of an ounce. 
Meanwhile, a dealer in the Seattle area charges $28 for the same 
amount of locally grown black-market pot, or $20 for California pot. 
"I assume a lot of people are still going to come to me," the dealer said.

A leading authority recommended an alternative tax scenario that 
starts low and rises as legal marijuana becomes less expensive to 
produce, so as to push illegal sellers out of business and then 
capitalize on improvements in legal growing techniques. The state 
rejected this approach, apparently hungry for estimated tax revenue 
of as much as $2 billion over the next five years.

There are many other complications. These include a wide divergence 
in opinions about legalization between western and eastern 
Washington; difficulties banking any marijuana-related money in 
federally regulated banks; concerns about the health impacts of 
marijuana on adolescents; and the list goes on.

All this leads the key expert cited in the story to this conclusion: 
He's pleased prohibition is ending, hopes legalization is a big 
success, but isn't optimistic. "I think commercial production and 
sale of cannabis is going to end in tears."
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom