Pubdate: Thu, 16 Oct 2014
Source: Tampa Bay Times (FL)
Copyright: 2014 St. Petersburg Times
Contact: http://www.sptimes.com/letters/
Website: http://www.tampabay.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/419
Note: Named the St. Petersburg Times from 1884-2011.
Author: Stephen Nohlgren, Times Staff Writer
Page: A1

Times, Bay News 9, UF Bob Graham Center Poll

HOPE FOR POT STARTS TO WILT

The Numbers Show Approval Of Medical Marijuana Is Doubtful

A constitutional amendment to legalize medical marijuana in Florida 
is in serious jeopardy.

For more than a year, the amendment seemed to enjoy broad support, 
cutting across political, racial and age lines.

But with opposition forces financing TV ads and sheriffs showing up 
at forums, support for the amendment has slipped dramatically, 
according to a new Tampa Bay Times /Bay News 9/ UF Bob Graham Center poll.

Only 48 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Amendment 
2. Forty-four percent oppose it and 7 percent said they had not made 
up their minds.

The requirement that it pass by a 60 percent vote now represents an 
imposing hurdle.

'My guess today is this is not going to pass," said David Colburn, 
director of the Bob Graham Center for Public Service. 'It may not 
mean that Floridians don't support the use of medical marijuana," he 
said, but apparently many voters dislike the amendment's wording and 
embedding it into the state Constitution.

Amendment 2 would allow people with disabling conditions to possess 
pot if a doctor certifies that they need it.

The telephone survey of 781 registered Florida voters - all likely to 
vote in the November election - was conducted Oct. 7-12 for the Tampa 
Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13 of Orlando by the University of 
Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic 
and Business Research. The poll, which included respondents using 
landlines and cellphones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 
percentage points. Results were weighted by age, party registration 
and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the 
distribution in the Florida Voter File.

Just six weeks ago, the Times partner poll found a much different 
result, with 57 percent saying they would vote in favor and only 24 
percent saying no. That poll gave the option of 'Haven't thought much 
about this,' which yielded a large group of undecided voters - about 
17 percent.

With 44 percent of likely voters now polling against, opponents may 
block the amendment even if they do not attract a single remaining 
undecided voter.

Medical marijuana opposition includes St. Petersburg's Drug Free 
America Foundation, the Florida Sheriff's Association and the Florida 
Medical Association. In ads, town hall meetings and debates they 
contend that the amendment is loosely worded, and will amount to de 
facto legalization of recreational pot.

'My sense is that people are organized against it far more than those 
favoring it," said Christopher McCarty, director of the UF Survey 
Research Center and director of the University of Florida's Bureau of 
Economic and Business Research.

Other than Orlando lawyer John Morgan, who is barnstorming the state 
for medical marijuana, supporters are 'a diffuse set of people," 
McCarty said, 'and they don't come across with an organized message 
like the sheriffs and the medical association." Louise Shinkman, 75, 
a Fort Myers real estate agent and political independent, is voting no.

'I disagree with the part about caregivers who don't need to be 
licensed or checked or anything," said Shinkman, repeating language 
from a recent television ad opposing Amendment 2. It claimed that 
even drug dealers could be caregivers and caregivers would need no training.

No state requires special training for medical marijuana 'caregivers' 
because they are not medical personnel. Some patients are too 
disabled to buy or grow marijuana for themselves so all states allow 
designated 'caregivers' to act on their behalf. The amendment allows 
the Legislature to draft regulations about who can be a caregiver.

Voters interviewed about their support for the amendment often 
recounted personal experiences with sick people.

'My mom had breast cancer," said Carrie McRay, 39, a Republican sales 
associate from Homosassa. 'The only way she could even eat during 
chemotherapy was to have something to smoke." Though early polls 
showed nonpartisan support for medical marijuana, the Times/ Bay News 
9/News 13 poll shows sharp divisions along party lines. Sixty percent 
of registered Democrats said they would vote yes, 61 percent of 
Republicans said they would vote no, and 55 percent of independents favored it.

Differences also showed up among age groups, with 74 percent of the 
25-to-34 bracket in favor and 56 percent of voters 60 or older opposing.

Times staff writers Weston Phippen and Katie Mettler contributed to this report.
- ---
MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom