Pubdate: Sun, 26 Oct 2014
Source: Gainesville Sun, The (FL)
Copyright: 2014 The Gainesville Sun
Contact:  http://www.gainesville.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/163
Author: Christopher Curry
Cited: People United for Medical Marijuana http://www.unitedforcare.org/

IS MEDICAL MARIJUANA AMENDMENT IN TROUBLE?

With Election Day less than two weeks away, Ben Pollara feverishly
worked the phones on Thursday.

Pollara, the campaign manager for the political committee behind the
medical marijuana referendum, contacted donors large and small in an
effort to bring in a late infusion of cash.

The committee, People United for Medical Marijuana, was in a rush to
raise enough money to buy more television advertising to offset the
opposition's aggressive, well-funded ad campaign, which has received
about $4 million from Las Vegas casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson.

A few months ago, Amendment 2 appeared to be riding a wave of support,
and Florida looked to be on its way to becoming the 24th state to
legalize medical marijuana.

In July, a Quinnipiac University poll of Florida voters showed 88
percent support for medical marijuana, although that poll did not get
into the specific ballot language of Amendment 2.

In early September, voter support for Amendment 2 stood at 57 percent,
below the 60 percent needed to pass a constitutional amendment,
according to a poll that the University of Florida Bob Graham Center
for Public Service and UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research
conducted in collaboration with the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9.

By mid-October, support had dwindled to 48 percent, according to a
subsequent poll of 781 likely voters also conducted by the Graham
Center and BEBR in collaboration with the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News
9.

Pollara said People United for Medical Marijuana's own polling still
shows support above 60 percent. But he stopped short of saying he's
confident the measure will pass.

"When the number you have to get is 60 percent, and it is almost a
foregone conclusion the next governor will be elected with less than
50 percent, I never feel that confident," he said.

In recent weeks, the campaign's message to supporters has taken on a
more urgent tone.

An email call for campaign contributions sent out Wednesday carried
the message, "I can't lie: The numbers we're seeing are making me
nervous." The message noted that the Vote No On 2 campaign had already
spent $2.6 million on television advertising and just ordered an
additional $1 million in ads.

Whether or not the recent poll numbers are accurate, UF political
science professor Dan Smith said support has "definitely been sliding."

Smith said he sees three factors contributing. First, he said
campaigns for ballot initiatives typically tighten when Election Day
nears as cautious undecided voters tend to stick to the status quo and
the opposition begins to raise questions.

Second, he said the pro-medical marijuana side has not been able to
keep pace with the visible, aggressive advertising campaign funded by
Adelson's contributions.

Through Oct. 10, the pro-Amendment 2 side had raised about $7 million,
including about $4 million from trial attorney and main benefactor
John Morgan, but the voter petition drive to get the referendum on the
ballot chewed up a good amount of that.

Smith said the most significant issue might be that Morgan became the
main public face of the campaign, instead of patients or the parents
of children who benefited from the use of medical cannabis in other
states.

"In many ways, Morgan was his own worst enemy," Smith said. "The Yes
on 2 campaign became a celebrity show featuring John Morgan and moved
away from a compassionate patient care issue. I think that is what the
opposition wanted. They wanted a trial lawyer facing a sheriff in a
forum."

In speaking engagements, Morgan often shares his family's own personal
stories, including how medical marijuana has helped his paralyzed
brother and helped his late father. But he could sometimes be either
charming or boisterous and humorous or profane. At one point in the
campaign, the anti-Amendment 2 group made an ad out of excerpts from a
profanity-laced speech that Morgan, drink in hand, made to supporters
after facing Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd, an outspoken opponent of
medical marijuana, in a debate.

"That's exactly what the No On 2 campaign wanted to do, attack the
messenger," Smith said. "That's what successful campaigns do; they
don't focus on the issue."

Speaking about the most recent poll, Chris McCarty, the director of
the UF Survey Research Center and BEBR, said Amendment 2 continued to
poll over 60 percent for young voters 18-24 years old and over 70
percent for voters those ages 25-34. Support among Democrats was right
at 60 percent, and opposition among Republicans was above 60 percent.

"Like the governor's race, turnout will determine it and whether a lot
of Democrats and young voters turn out," McCarty said of Amendment
2.

If this year follows the trend of other midterm elections, turnout
among Republican voters will be stronger than Democrats, and that does
not bode well for the measure, McCarty said.

He said the ballot language also raises questions and concerns. After
listing specific diseases and medical conditions for which a doctor
could approve medical marijuana, the ballot includes more open-ended
language allowing its approval when there are "other conditions for
which a physician believes that the medical use of marijuana would
likely outweigh the potential health risks for a patient."

For someone who might favor medical marijuana for a cancer patient,
that more open-ended language could raise concerns about the
possibility of medical pot being expanded to treat insomnia or being
exploited and used for some questionable medical conditions.

McCarty also said allies in statewide groups such as the Florida
Sheriffs Association and the Florida Medical Association have the
opposition more organized than Amendment 2's more loose coalition of
supporters.

David Colburn, the director of the Graham Center, said there's also
the question about whether embedding medical marijuana in the state
constitution, a move that will be difficult to reverse or change in
the future, is the appropriate way to legalize medical marijuana.

Talking about the current state of the campaign, Pollara said he feels
opponents have used a "totally disingenuous and cynical" advertising
campaign.

One ad lambasted the referendum as the "drug dealer protection act,"
saying drug dealers and felons could work as caregivers whom patients
may select to assist them in taking medical marijuana.

Pollara said such an argument "ignores the fact that constitutional
amendments do not exist in a vacuum" and rules and regulations for
their implementation are put in place after a referendum passes.

He also said the idea of a drug dealer getting a state identification
card with a photograph to go to a regulated business with security
cameras to purchase marijuana at a cost well above street prices in
order to resell it "is absolutely ludicrous."

Asked about the vocal position many sheriffs have taken against
medical marijuana, Pollara said the opposition no doubt benefits when
they have a "surrogate with a badge, a gun, a uniform and respect" in
almost every county.

The main challenge, he said, is the advertising campaign that
Adelson's money has funded.

"They have an advantage in the fact that their primary benefactor is a
billionaire many times over," Pollara said.
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MAP posted-by: Richard