Pubdate: Sun, 02 Nov 2014 Source: Sarasota Herald-Tribune (FL) Copyright: 2014 Sarasota Herald-Tribune Contact: http://www.heraldtribune.com/sendletter Website: http://www.heraldtribune.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/398 Author: Michael Pollick MARIJUANA AMENDMENT VOTE LOOKING CLOSE While polls this summer indicated widespread support for medical marijuana in Florida, the latest surveys appear to show backing for Amendment 2 slipping amid a drumbeat of recent advertisements from opposition groups. Even United for Care, which has been leading a charge for medical marijuana here and once basked in polls that showed nine in 10 Floridians supported the constitutional amendment, has taken on a renewed urgency in the days leading up to the election Tuesday . "We are behind on our fundraising goal," Ben Pollara, United for Care's campaign manager, wrote last week. "I literally need to raise a couple of thousand more in the next couple of hours, or we're not going to have everything in place." Opponents, meanwhile, contend they have succeeded in convincing voters that allowing medical marijuana would result in a host of unintended - and potentially dangerous - consequences and public health problems. "We believe the message has gotten through to the electorate that this amendment is not about helping the truly sick," said Sarah Bascom, spokeswoman for Drug Free Florida and Vote No on 2. "It was always intended to be a full-blown legalization of marijuana." If 60 percent of Sunshine State voters approve it, Florida would become the 24th state in the nation to allow medical marijuana. Florida would be significant, too, in that it could serve as a potential linchpin for national legislation on the issue. Advocates and state estimates say at least 400,000 patients who suffer from a variety of debilitating medical conditions could benefit if marijuana is classified as a medicine. Mary Hoch, a 52-year-old Sarasota businesswoman diagnosed with multiple sclerosis three years ago, is among them. While she does not currently use marijuana to treat her MS, which can cause muscle stiffness, pain, mobility issues and difficulty swallowing, she would like to have the option. "How would you like to walk around all day and feel like thousands of little pins are sticking in your arms and legs?" Hoch said, adding that her research showed she could halve her prescription medications by using marijuana as a treatment. Both supporters and opponents agree that Vote No on 2-sponsored ads that have targeted what the group describes as "loopholes" in the amendment have shaved support for the measure in recent weeks. In one, Vote No on 2 contends the amendment would allow children greater access to marijuana. In another, it says illegal drug dealers would legitimately be allowed to sell pot without fear of prosecution. The key question in the waning days of the campaign is how much support - if any - has been eroded, and how much impact the ads have had. Like the governor's race pitting Gov. Rick Scott against Charlie Crist, many analysts say it is too close to call. "Sixty percent is very difficult to get," said Greg Steube, R-Sarasota, a state representative starting his third term in office. "I have always said I think it will fail by a couple of points. It will be a very close vote." But political analysts predict the issue could prompt a higher-than-anticipated voter turnout for the midterm election, which historically has weak participation. "Peripheral voters, who are often indecisive independents or weak Democrats or weak Republicans, may be motivated to come to the polls because of the medical marijuana measure," said Daniel Smith, a University of Florida political scientist. The outcome of the medical marijuana debate may come down to tactics, analysts say. After one Quinnipiac University poll earlier this year showed the amendment had a 94 percent approval rating from Democrats and 80 percent approval from Republicans likely to vote, the group targeted the language within the amendment - and stayed away from a scientific discussion of potential medical benefits. Conversely, analysts say that while United For Care did a masterful job of securing the required 800,000 signatures needed to get the measure on the ballot, its campaign has been pocked with inconsistency. "If you wanted to write a story about how to run a campaign, the Vote No on 2 people have been genius, they've been fantastic," said Michael Binder, whose poll from the University of North Florida in early October had the amendment passing by seven points. "But the Yes people, United for Care, have been terrible, just awful," Binder said. "It is such a bad campaign." Last week, United for Care issued a "cease and desist" request to statewide television stations over an ad it did not want aired. The group maintained it violated Federal Communications Commission rules. The trouble was, the video in question from Vote No on 2 appeared online, on YouTube and other outlets, and not on television. United for Care's Pollara later acknowledged the mistake. Meanwhile, a recent Tampa Bay Times/University of Florida poll predicted the amendment would fail with just under 50 percent voting in favor of it. "If it passes, with 63 percent or 64 percent or something like that, that means we got lucky in the people in the sample, or we did a better job of targeting likely voters," Binder said. As the campaign heated up this fall, the dryly worded proposal became the subject of a circus-like atmosphere. At a debate held in Bradenton by the League of Women Voters, cannabis supporters showed up wearing Yes on 2 T-shirts and waving "Yes on 2!" placards. They cheered when Pollara spoke, and booed Vote No on 2 state coalition director Jessica Spencer. Elsewhere, Orlando attorney John Morgan - who was instrumental in getting the amendment on the ballot, spending $4 million of his own money to organize supporters initially - boarded a bus for a statewide tour of college campuses to drum up support. On the other side of the issue, Drug Free Florida has enlisted law enforcement, a key statewide medical association and others to sway voters. "If this passes, you'll be able to get medical marijuana for back pain, or it could be neck pain, it could even be menstrual cramps," Manatee County Sheriff Brad Steube, Greg Steube's father, told a group gathered for a lunchtime debate over medical marijuana in Lakewood Ranch last month . Most recently, it has turned to the airwaves, armed with a $4.5 million war chest from Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson. United for Care, however, has spent little on TV ads of its own of late. Instead, it appears to be relying primarily on testimonials from people like Hoch, and word of mouth. Hoch, who identifies herself as a conservative Republican, has to date continued to work in banking and real estate despite her MS. She battles pain and fatigue daily, she says. "I want to be able to access this medicine, so that I can continue to work, as it progresses," she said. - --- MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom