Pubdate: Mon, 17 Nov 2014
Source: Las Vegas Review-Journal (NV)
Copyright: 2014 Las Vegas Review-Journal
Contact: http://www.reviewjournal.com/about/print/press/letterstoeditor.html
Website: http://www.lvrj.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/233
Author: Sean Whaley

ANALYSIS SEES BIG DOLLARS FROM LEGAL POT

Oregon Can Expect $20 Million From Taxes

There could be gold in cannabis in terms of tax revenue if Nevada 
voters in 2016 ultimately approve the recreational use of marijuana 
for adults, based on estimates for Oregon and Alaska.

Estimates made by Arcview Market Research's team for the two states, 
which passed marijuana legalization initiatives Nov. 4, show 
projected first-year retail sales of nearly $200 million in Oregon, 
which has a population of 3.9 million.

Projected excise tax revenue is $20 million, with total demand 
estimated at 158,897 pounds.

The Oregon Market Potential, defined as the market's value if 100 
percent of all current demand for cannabis went to the legal 
regulated market, is estimated at $569 million.

For Alaska, with about 750,000 residents, first-year retail sales are 
estimated at nearly $80 million with excise tax revenue of $10 
million. Total demand is estimated at 40,928 pounds with the market 
potential estimated at $187 million.

Backers of a proposal to legalize the recreational use of marijuana 
in Nevada turned in nearly 200,000 signatures Wednesday to get the 
proposal on the 2016 ballot. The process of checking the signatures 
to make sure there are enough to qualify the measure is now underway.

The Nevada Legislature will get the first crack at the proposal in 
the 2015 session if it qualifies. If lawmakers fail to act, voters 
will decide in about two years' time.

The Oregon and Alaska projections are based on estimated existing 
demand from marijuana consumers, new marijuana consumer demand and 
demand from out-of-state visitors.

Oregon adult-use stores will enter a highly competitive market with 
established retail competition from Washington State, existing 
medical marijuana stores in Oregon and cheap black-market supply from 
Northern California, the Arcview report says.

The Alaska market has less overall demand but also less competition 
from legal sources, leading to more demand being met by adult-use 
stores. Market prices will be higher because of geography and limited 
alternative supply.

ArcView Market Research says it has been producing the definitive 
market data and analysis for the cannabis industry since 2011.
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom