Pubdate: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 Source: Edmonton Journal (CN AB) Copyright: 2015 The Edmonton Journal Contact: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/letters/letters-to-the-editor.html Website: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/ Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/134 Author: Jason Fekete Pages: B4-B5 BACK TO PARLIAMENT: WHAT'S AT ISSUE THIS TIME? As the House of Commons Returns Monday, Jason Fekete of Postmedia News outlines the issues expected to dominate this sitting and what they'll mean for each party Budgeting blues: Oil prices, which have shrunk by more than half since June 2014, are gobbling billions in tax revenue from the federal treasury and jeopardizing the Conservative government's promise to balance the books in 2015. Finance Minister Joe Oliver has delayed the budget until at least April so the government can get a better handle on what depressed oil prices will mean to the Canadian economy. Oliver and Prime Minister Stephen Harper still say the government will end seven consecutive years of deficits and post a surplus in 201516, despite warning signs of economic troubles on the horizon. TD Bank predicted earlier this month that the Conservative government's promised surplus could actually turn into a deficit, while the Bank of Canada, in dropping its key interest rate to 0.75 per cent from one per cent, warned this week that the sharp drop in oil prices "will be negative for Canadian growth" and is putting the country's economic recovery at risk. The Conference Board of Canada said the plunge in oil prices is expected to chop $4.3 billion from federal revenues this year; meanwhile, the Tory government's new family tax cuts are expected to cost $4.6 billion in 201516. "The drop in oil prices is unambiguously negative for the Canadian economy," Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said. The problem for the Conservatives: The government made a bunch of tax-break promises, including income-splitting for couples with kids and an enhanced Universal Child Care Benefit. But it's unclear if the government can afford these while still balancing the budget. By the time of the election, scheduled for October, will Canadians really be "better off with Harper," as the Conservative slogan goes? The problem for the NDP: Leader Tom Mulcair floated a multibillion-dollar child care plan in the fall. How will that be affordable given the havoc oil prices have wreaked on the economy? The problem for the Liberals: None, really. Or at least - none, yet. The Liberals and leader Justin Trudeau have released very little economic policy, so nobody can criticize it. But eventually, Trudeau will face questions on whether he can be trusted to manage the Canadian economy. Getting tough on terrorism: The federal government has spent months crafting new anti-terrorism legislation that Harper says will be introduced "very early" in the new sitting of the House. Harper has said the bill will include new powers for security agencies to identify and thwart potential terror threats, including preventive arrests and detentions. It's expected the legislation will allow security agencies to more easily obtain and share information previously covered under privacy laws, and include a strategy to help prevent youths from becoming radicalized. The government is also reportedly looking to make it easier to obtain information on the movement of controlled goods and substances such as weapons or materials that could be used for chemical weapons. The problem for the Conservatives: The new legislation must balance Canadians' need for security with privacy laws and fundamental freedoms. This is tricky: The Tories were widely seen as having been too intrusive with their online security legislation, and had to retreat. On the other hand, public security has been top of mind for Canadians amid attacks on our soil and terrorist threats from abroad; the government will enjoy considerable support on this file. The problem for the NDP: Mulcair has hesitated to call the Oct. 22 shootings in Ottawa a terrorist attack, given the dearth of information made public so far. So it's less clear how an NDP-led government would act on this file. The Conservatives have happily tried to paint the NDP as soft on terror. The problem for the Liberals: Trudeau, who has said the "root causes" of terrorism need to be understood, has also been prey for the Tories, who see him as politically vulnerable on security matters. The veterans file: In early January, Harper shuffled the less-than-successful Julian Fantino out of Veterans Affairs and named rising star Erin O'Toole as minister. One of O'Toole's first big tests could come Jan. 30, when the government is expected to respond to recommendations that the House of Commons Veterans Affairs committee issued last June, dealing with improvements to the controversial New Veterans Charter, including increasing the disability award provided to veterans and improving how injured soldiers are handled by the bureaucracy. Many wonder if the Tory government will introduce new funding for veterans in the federal budget, then turn to O'Toole to try to sell it to Canada's former soldiers and military personnel. The problem for the Conservatives: Where to start? The government closed Veterans Affairs offices, the minister got huffy with veterans, the department failed to spend more than $1 billion over several years. The file, which should have been a no-brainer for the government, has been a political headache. The problem for the NDP and the Liberals: With Fantino out and the affable O'Toole in, the opposition may not have such a big target to aim at. Assisted suicide debate: The Supreme Court could rule this spring on the criminal ban on doctor-assisted suicide. Indeed, the country's largest doctors' group, the Canadian Medical Association, is quietly preparing for potential changes to federal laws governing physician-assisted death. Some observers believe the Supreme Court could strike down Canada's ban on assisted suicide and give Parliament one year to prepare new legislation, as it did with prostitution. Conservative MP Steven Fletcher, a quadriplegic since 1996, has introduced two private member's bills that would decriminalize physician-assisted death for "competent adults" and make the process transparent. While it's not expected his bills will be debated in the Commons before the federal election (and therefore die on the order paper), Conservative Sen. Nancy Ruth tabled similar legislation in the Senate in December, with the bill having support from senators on both sides of the upper chamber. Fletcher hopes that legislation will pass third reading in the Senate and be sent to the House of Commons "at the top of the order of precedence" so MPs can debate and vote on the bill. The problem for the Conservatives: The Tories may be forced to revisit federal laws, depending on what the Supreme Court says, and one of Harper's own MPs is actively trying to push the issue even as the prime minister says his government "has no intention of reopening that debate." The problem for all parties: Almost all politicians would prefer to dodge this dicey political issue, one that is divisive among MPs in the same caucuses. Iraq mission: Canada's six-month military mission fighting the Islamic State in Iraq is to end in early April, and the government has not said whether it will seek an extension. But questions are now emerging about so-called mission creep after officials revealed Canadian special forces have been on the front lines targeting Islamic State fighters for bombing runs and killing attackers via sniper fire. Defence Minister Rob Nicholson says of Canadian troops that the federal government "did not put limits on their ability to advise and assist the Iraqis" when they were deployed. Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Tom Lawson suggests the mission has, indeed, "evolved." If it is extended, the mission could become a significant political issue heading into the federal election. The problem for the Conservatives: While the Tories want to look tough on terror, political and human risks always go with military deployments. And the opposition is now on the offensive, saying Harper did not tell Canadians the truth about the mission. The problem for the NDP: No problem, in fact. The NDP has opposed the mission from the start, and is happy to position itself as unambiguously against the Conservatives on military activity, while backing enhanced aid for victims. The problem for the Liberals: Their initial stance on Iraq was seen as less clear than that of either of the other parties, and was not helped by Trudeau's "whip out our CF-18s" gaffe. Trudeau's challenge when the Commons again debates Iraq will be to show his party has a clear position and that he is a serious man on this topic. Mike Duffy trial: The criminal trial of suspended Sen. Mike Duffy is to start April 7 and last weeks, stretching into June before it's all over. (And in the later days of Duffy's trial, Sen. Patrick Brazeau has a pretrial hearing for his fraud case.) With 31 criminal charges, the trial will look at Duffy's spending habits in the Senate, allegations that he double-dipped, gave contracts to a friend and allegedly used some of the cash for a makeup artist and personal trainer. And there are those bribery charges over the $90,000 payment from Nigel Wright, Harper's former chief of staff. Meanwhile, the RCMP continues to investigate Sen. Pamela Wallin over her travel expense claims. The problem for the Conservatives: The Duffy trial will bring what was an unwelcome political headache back into the news. The focus on the $90,000 payment in particular will open up the backroom dealings of the Prime Minister's Office, and weeks of testimony could produce explosive and inconvenient headlines. The problems for the NDP and Liberals: Not many. They're happy to watch the trial unfold. Climate change: Representatives of many countries will gather in Paris in December to craft a post-2020 framework for combating climate change, so the clock is ticking to update Canada's blueprint. Under the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, Canada agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17 per cent below 2005 levels by the year 2020. But the latest data from Environment Canada show that, at the current pace, Canada won't come close. Moreover, Canada's environment commissioner says there's no overall plan for how the country will meet its 2020 targets. The environment commissioner has also found the Tory government has been keeping secret long-promised regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector. Harper said in December, in the midst of oil prices tumbling, that it would be "crazy" for Canada to implement greenhouse gas regulations for the oil and gas sector under current economic conditions. Many economists are saying that today's low oil prices make it a perfect time to introduce carbon pricing at the federal level. The problem for the Conservatives: The government's current climate-change targets appear almost certain to fail, and the carbon-intensive oilsands developments could become even more of an international environmental target if the country doesn't produce a credible post-2020 plan in Paris. The problem for the NDP and Liberals: The opposition parties may think they are more environment-friendly, but they face political risks if they promise more aggressive climate-change policies! , such as a carbon tax or carbon pricing, at a time when jobs and the economy are under pressure. Harassment on the Hill: The suspension of Liberal MPs Scott Andrews and Massimo Pacetti over unproven allegations of "serious personal misconduct" toward two female New Democrat MPs highlighted a disturbing side of Parliament Hill and left all parties grappling to deal with the issue of harassment. Both Liberal MPs deny any wrongdoing. Two other former NDP staffers say they were wrongfully dismissed by the party, with one of those cases including allegations of harassment. The House of Commons announced a new harassment policy in December to cover MPs' conduct with their employees, both on Parliament Hill and any place where "inappropriate behaviour ... might reasonably be perceived" to affect working relationships. The new policy does not directly address MP-to-MP accusations. Questions are mounting over whether there's a toxic work environment on Parliament Hill, a place often dubbed an old-boys' club. The problem for the Liberals: Trudeau has been forced to suspend two of his own MPs, and has been attacked by the NDP for putting his political interests ahead of the interests of the alleged victims by going public with the information. The problem for the NDP: Mulcair and the party face questions about whether they adequately addressed concerns from the two female MPs, and of staffers in other unrelated harassment cases. The problem for the Conservatives: While they would be involved in setting new policies to prevent or punish future harassment, they haven't been sucked into this political morass so far. For now, they can just watch the other two parties hurl recriminations at each other. Moving on marijuana laws: The government has been examining possible changes to Canada's drug laws to allow police officers to issue tickets - rather than lay charges - to people caught with small amounts of marijuana. Canadian police chiefs have called for a ticketing system for people possessing 30 grams of pot or less, something Harper has said he would consider. Justice Minister Peter MacKay said in March 2014 he had tasked his department with looking at possible legislation. RCMP Commissioner Bob Paulson said last fall that smoking pot isn't as big of a deal as it used to be, a position MacKay said he disagreed with because youth are negatively affected by marijuana use. MacKay and the Conservative government have been quick to point out that any policy change will not be decriminalization or legalization - - a position favoured by the Liberal leader. Trudeau wants marijuana freely sold and taxed, and he believes regulating it would help keep it out of the hands of youth. The NDP supports immediate decriminalization, where users aren't criminally prosecuted so nobody goes to jail for smoking a joint. The NDP is also open to considering legalization, but the party is calling for a commission to instruct Parliament on how to carefully regulate non-medical use. The problem for the Conservatives: The Tories have trumpeted themselves as tough on crime, and regularly attack Trudeau for wanting to legalize and regulate marijuana. Any softening of marijuana laws could be seen as hypocritical and a step down from their aggressive approach. The problem for the Liberals: Trudeau still hasn't clearly explained how he would move to legalize the drug, and t! he issue threatens to overshadow other Liberal policies - whenever they're released. The problem for the NDP and Liberals: While many recreational pot users favour decriminalization or legalization, the opposition parties also risk looking soft on drug use - and hence soft on crime - with their respective positions. Following the rules: The Conservative-dominated Board of Internal Economy ruled in June that the NDP must pay back $1.17 million after using its parliamentary mailing privileges for partisan reasons. The BONE also ruled in August that the NDP misled House administrators about MPs' staff assigned to satellite offices in Quebec. The party has been told to pay back salaries and other costs to the House, an expense that could run into the millions of dollars. Both issues ended up in legal action, but the negotiations to settle haven't worked so far and the board is expected to demand repayment of the House of Commons' costs when MPs return next week. The problem for the NDP: Huge. The party could be forced to pay back millions of dollars just months before the election campaign - one in which the NDP expects to spend the maximum allowed, likely more than $20 million. The problem for the Conservatives and Liberals: None whatsoever. Election perceptions: The parties are gearing up for an election scheduled, as per fixed-date legislation, on Oct. 19. They've all started rolling out promises. And they've also been fundraising. With the publicly funded per-vote subsidy being phased out for good on April 1, the parties are stockpiling their war chests for the campaign. The problem for the Conservatives: The Tories are polling solidly, the war chest is overflowing - but the government's biggest challenge on the campaign trail may still be trying to persuade voters that, after more than nine years in power, Harper hasn't passed his best-before date. The problem for the NDP: The NDP faces a large test to show that the "Orange Wave" that swept them into official Opposition status in 2011 can be repeated in Quebec, and exported to other provinces. But mostly it has to convince people to choose Mulcair, its politically experienced leader, over Trudeau's rock-star personal popularity. The problem for the Liberals: Trudeau and the Liberals hope to capitalize on what they believe is voters' desire for change. They also hope to capitalize on Trudeau himself. But the party has presented little economic policy to date, and Trudeau is still prone to occasional verbal gaffes that feed his foes' argument that he isn't quite ready to govern. - --- MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom