Pubdate: Tue, 16 Feb 2016
Source: Globe and Mail (Canada)
Copyright: 2016 The Globe and Mail Company
Contact:  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
Details: http://www.mapinc.org/media/168
Author: Tracey Lindeman
Page: B1

WILL LEGALIZING POT PUSH OUT THE PUSHERS?

Drug dealers in Canada may soon have to contend with the biggest 
business competitor they've ever faced: the federal government.

One Montreal dealer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said 
that like any businessman, he is worried about how marijuana 
legalization will affect the bottom line of his low-key, one-man operation.

"I just want to be able to pay a few bills," he says.

Legalization has come with a promise to curb the black market in 
almost every jurisdiction where such laws exist. But if what happened 
in Colorado is any indication, the black market isn't going anywhere 
fast. There, weed is still sold by unlicensed producers looking to 
capitalize on legalization. That can already be seen in Canada, too: 
Non-medicinal marijuana sellers are proliferating in the grey zone 
left by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's promise to legalize.

The Montreal dealer believes having good-quality legal marijuana at a 
decent price is the biggest threat to his business.

"It will affect most dealers in the sense that it's going to take 
away the business from the casual smoker. Tonight, let's say you want 
to go smoke a joint with your [boyfriend]. You're not going to come 
see me - you're going to go around the corner to the closest place 
and you're going to have your pick of 50 different kinds. I will lose 
you as a customer."

However, he says, there are conditions in which black-market 
marijuana will continue to thrive. For example, he anticipates heavy 
users who buy large quantities of marijuana may still call on him in 
after-store hours, as will people looking for weed after the legal 
dispensaries have closed up for the night.

"For the first three or four months, probably, I'm going to lose a 
lot of money. People are going to freak out, there are going to be 
lineups, people are going to love it," the dealer says. "But then 
reality sets in. If the store's not open at 10 p.m., they're going to 
come see people like us."

Many dealers also tend to sell other drugs in addition to marijuana. 
In this dealer's case, he also sells cocaine and speed, among other 
products. That means that the legalization of one product won't put 
him entirely out of business.

"There's always going to be a black market. There's a black market in 
cigarettes," says Alan Young, a constitutional lawyer and law 
professor at Toronto's York University who has successfully 
challenged Canada's medical-marijuana laws.

Still, there's no question that one of the main motivations of 
legalization is to compete with - and ideally dismantle - the 
domestic black market for marijuana, Mr. Young says.

To accomplish that, the government would have to promise three 
things: A competitive price, superior quality and wide availability.

"The big concern people have is the potential for increase in youth 
consumption," says Beau Kilmer, co-director of the RAND Drug Policy 
Research Center in the United States. "So, the most important thing 
people will have to pay attention to - in terms of legalization - is 
what happens to the price."

That, Mr. Kilmer says, is because young people and heavy users are 
the most cost-sensitive: "If the price is too high, you're still 
going to have black markets."

The government has yet to determine the legal method for selling 
marijuana: a liquor store-type model, a dispensary model or an 
expansion of the current system of legal medical producers who ship by mail.

However, a heavily regulated recreational-marijuana market leaves 
lots of room for an illegal undercurrent, because there will always 
be people who want to avoid taxation or having a record of their 
consumption, who don't trust the government, and who buy other drugs 
besides marijuana. Strict regulations may also drive the price up if 
licensed producers' overhead costs grow, in which case users may 
still opt for street dealers' pot.

Meanwhile, the hurdles Mr. Trudeau and his cabinet are currently 
facing on this dossier mean legalization is likely several years off. 
"I'm very skeptical, myself," says Andrew Hathaway, a drug-policy 
researcher and associate professor in the University of Guelph's 
criminal justice and public policy program. "I assume there's going 
to be some sort of consultation process, which is always a good stall 
tactic on the part of governments."
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MAP posted-by: Jay Bergstrom