Source: Houston Chronicle, Tuesday, July 8, 1997
LTEs:  Battle looms despite doubt that drug lord truly died

By ANDREW DOWNIE
Copyright 1997 Special to the Chronicle

CULIACAN, Mexico  The reported death of Mexico's leading drug
trafficker will probably trigger a power struggle inside in his
organization and a realignment in the drug trade across Mexico,
Mexican officials said Monday.

U.S. drug agents said Sunday that they had been told by Mexican
officials that Amado Carrillo Fuentes died in Mexico City after
undergoing eight hours of surgery to change his appearance. But
Mexican officials said later that they cannot confirm the death
until they run DNA tests on the body. On Monday, the reports of
his death were met with widespread skepticism here, with former
Attorney General Antonio Lozano calling the report a "fantasy."

Regardless of whether Amado Carrillo Fuentes has died or gone
into hiding to escape the authorities, his Juarez drug cartel
will never be the same, experts on both sides of the border
agreed.

Francisco Molina, a former drug czar in Mexico, said that
factions inside the cartel will compete to establish
relationships with cocaine suppliers in Colombia, distributors in
the United States and corrupt officials in Mexico for protection
and services.

"There is going to be a fight to see who dominates," Molina said.
"Every branch of the organization has some power."

Molina said the battle may lead to bloodshed because one of those
sectors vying for power will be the armed wing of the cartel.
Those in the armed wing, however, seldom have contacts with
suppliers, while distributors, traffickers and those who manage
the corruption of public officials lack power or other knowhow,
he said.

"It is not easy to make associations," Molina said.

Among those best placed to assume Carrillo's mantel is his
brother Vicente, who worked closely alongside him in Ciudad
Juarez, the bustling Chihuahua state city across the border from
El Paso.

Another possibility is the family's youngest brother, Rodolfo,
who, Culiacan's El Debate newspaper said, was designated by
Carrillo as his successor. The paper said Rodolfo controls the
business and transportation side of cartel operations.

But Carrillo's brothers are young, and drug experts said more
likely contenders to take control are another set of brothers,
Rafael, Eduardo and Raul Munoz Talavera, all of whom have an
intimate knowledge of drug smuggling operations in Chihuahua
state. All three worked closely with Carrillo's predecessor,
Rafael Aguilar, and then aligned themselves with Carrillo after
Aguilar was shot and killed in 1993.

Law enforcement sources in Chihuahua said the brothers worked
with Carrillo for years but not necessarily directly for him. All
three are under indictment in the Western District of Texas on
cocaine trafficking and moneylaundering charges. One of the
brothers, Eduardo Munoz Talavera, is in jail in Mexico.

The Tijuanabased Arellano Felix brothers, for years deadly
enemies of Carrillo, will also benefit from Carrillo's reported
death, but they are unlikely to move in on his territory, Mexican
experts said. The Arellanos run the only drug trafficking
operation with resources and reach comparable to that of
Carrillo.

The animosity between the Arellanos and Carrillo's organization
has grown in recent years because Carrill sought to expand his
territory west toward Tijuana.

The Arellanos, who have moved away from smuggling cocaine in
recent years, may try to make contact with Carrillo's South
American cocaine suppliers, Molina said.

The former drug czar said he thought it unlikely the Arellanos
would make moves on Ciudad Juarez, pointing out that the brothers
made no effort to gain ground in the east when Juan Garcia
Abrego, head of the Matamorosbased Gulf cartel, was captured in
January 1996.

"They didn't go to the Gulf," Molina said. "I don't think they
have ever entered territory they didn't already dominate."
  
Andrew Downie is a freelance journalist based in Mexico City.