Pubdate: Mon, 20 Apr 1998 Source: Orange County Register (CA) Contact: http://www.ocregister.com/ Author:Debra J.Saunders-Ms.Saunders is a syndicated columnist. SMOKE AND MIRRORS IN THE TOBACCO CRUSADE If you want to support the National Policy and Youth Smoking Reduction Act being crafted in Washington these days, try not to think too hard. Don't ask yourself whether the legislation really will "reduce teen smoking in America," as President Clinton said in a speech last week. Don't look at the rise in teen smoking, despite campaigns against the lethal habit. Teen smoking has increased every year since Clinton became president and declared war on the nasty habit among teens. I don't blame Clinton for the rise, but considering the lip service he has given to this cause - with the result that the number of high school seniors who smoke rose from 17.2 percent in 1992 to 22.2 percent in 1996 - I hardly expect him to deliver the cure. Don't ask yourself who really pays the tax. Tobacco-bill boosters say that tobacco companies will have to pay $516 billion in higher taxes - or more if Washington decides to outdo a measure pushed through by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Believe them. Forget that it's really smokers who will pay the tab. Forget that most smokers are poor or lower-middle class. (The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that 59 percent of the tax boost would be paid by people earning less than $35,000 a year, 34 percent by people who earn under $15,000. The average single smoker will pay $599 more annually in taxes by 2003 if the McCain bill becomes law. But that is an unpleasant fact, and what are unpleasant facts compared to good intentions?) Don't ask whether the tobacco tax is a regressive tax that burdens (mostly poor) people already punished enough by tobacco companies. Don't ask if this tax increase is another case of kicking the victim. Don't ask why Washington would raise cigarette taxes to reduce teen consumption when - according to the Tax Foundation - teens are responsible for only 2 percent of U.S. cigarette consumption. Don't wonder which industry - alcohol, cars" - politicians will target after they've squeezed smokers dry. Most pols want to spend more tax dollars but understand they can't raise taxes in general. They need vilified industries if they want to appease their big spending habits. Today cigarettes, tomorrow alcohol and fast-food. Or maybe gasoline because it causes teen car accidents. Whatever it is, expect the call for greater taxes to be an issue not of spending but of making America safer for The Children. Don't ask if the higher tax - $1.10 per pack - would lead to bootlegging. The answer is yes. Don't wonder why President Clinton won't enumerate exactly how much more the Republican Congress should add to the tobacco tax bite. He doesn't care. He only wants to make Republicans look soft on tobacco. Don't question whether an increased tax burden actually will reduce consumption or if it will simply pinch smokers. Don't think of countries like France, where the average tax per pack is $2.61 - and consumption is above 40 percent. If bill boosters say a tax hike will decrease smoking, you shouldn't question them. The important thing is that Washington, D.C., pols can look good by supporting as big a tax - on the evil tobacco companies - as possible. It doesn't matter if the tax reduces teen smoking, as advertised. The important thing is that the measure purports to help kids. Therefore, it would be wrong to question any aspect of it. Wake up America! Before we reach the point of no return, wake up!