Source: San Jose Mercury News
Author: Tod Robberson, Dallas Morning News
Contact:  
Website: http://www.sjmercury.com/ 
Pubdate: 31 May 1998

AMID PROBLEMS, COLOMBIA FACING CRUCIAL VOTE

Weak Candidates Don't Inspire Nation

BOGOTA, Colombia -- As Colombia confronts deepening civil war, corruption
and international disrepute as a drug-trafficking haven, the ballot in
today's presidential elections may offer the best snapshot of this nation's
limited options for the future.

Voters can choose among the three main candidates, each offering similar
proposals of moderate change, promises of peace and assurances that
Colombia's plight will ease under their leadership. Or voters can select a
final option at the bottom of the ballot: an empty, white square that
effectively sends the message ``none of the above.''

After four years of scandal-tainted leadership under President Ernesto
Samper, many Colombian voters are openly doubtful about any candidate's
ability to lead their nation out of its current morass.

``What we are facing is a problem of leadership,'' said independent
Congress member Ingrid Betancourt. ``This is an absolutely vital election
for Colombia, given all of our problems . . . but it's obvious that nobody
is offering any revolutionary proposals to save the country.''

Competing against the none-of-the-above vote are conservative front-runner
AndrE9s Pastrana, independent Noemi Sanin, and ruling Liberal Party
candidate Horacio Serpa, a close political ally of Samper's who served as
interior minister until January.

The stakes have never been higher in a Colombian election, internationally
as well as domestically, observers said.

Since Samper took office in 1994, the nation's 34-year-old leftist
insurgency has swollen to unprecedented strength, both militarily and
financially, thanks largely to an alliance with Colombia's cocaine- and
heroin-trafficking organizations.

Washington is warning that unless something is done to curb the rebels'
expansion, Colombian democracy might not survive.

While the United States is maintaining neutrality in the elections,
officials have made clear they hope Colombia's next president will be a
full partner in the war on drugs, curb human rights abuses by the military,
and take an aggressive approach toward ending the insurgency.

Billions of dollars in foreign investment, loans, development assistance
and U.S. anti-narcotics aid hang in the balance.

In addition, Washington hopes that the next administration will be able to
restore legitimacy to a presidency tainted under Samper by persistent
allegations that his 1994 campaign received more than $6 million in
contributions from drug lords.

The domestic challenge is equally tough. Unemployment hovers near 15
percent, foreign investment is plummeting and the Colombian currency has
lost nearly 30 percent of its value over the past 18 months.

Two weeks ago, leaders of the nation's largest guerrilla group, the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, offered to initiate peace
talks with the winner of Sunday's election, even while FARC mobilized
forces to block voters from going to the polls.

In the highly conflictive southern state of Putumayo, Gov. Jorge Devia
Murcia warned Samper last week that he would request formal abolishment of
his state unless something was done to curb growing lawlessness, drug
production and attacks by guerrillas and right-wing paramilitary groups.

With so many crucial factors at play, however, candidates have fallen short
of convincing Colombia's 21 million voters that a solution to the nation's
ills is at hand, said Elizabeth Ungar, a political scientist at the
University of the Andes.

``Voters do not perceive the candidates as offering dramatically different
proposals, so they don't feel they have much to base their vote on. Instead
of voting on the candidates' ideas and proposals, they're being forced to
vote on images and personalities,'' she said.

The national political magazine Semana concurred, noting in an
issue-by-issue analysis last week that ``the differences among the
electoral proposals of the . . . principal candidates are so subtle that
voters need a magnifying glass'' to make a distinction.

All three major candidates have received endorsements from prominent
Colombians. Pastrana, who already enjoys broad support from the nation's
business community, recently won the backing of Nobel Prize-winning author
Gabriel Garc(acu)a Erquez. Former President Alfonso  Michelsen broke ranks
with his own Liberal Party to endorse Sanin. Serpa recently won the
endorsement of the nation's largest and most influential newspaper, El Tiempo.

But another prominent figure, independent politician Gloria Isabel Cuartas,
formally endorsed ``none of the above'' in a newspaper column published
Wednesday. She argued that marking the empty white square is a way
Colombians can exercise their democratic rights while registering their
``rejection of the way in which politics are run, the incapacity of
programs'' being offered by the candidates.

Polls show Pastrana holding a comfortable lead while Serpa is struggling
against Sanin for a highly valued second-place showing that will almost
certainly force a runoff election in mid-June.

Under Colombian law, a runoff is required between the top two contenders if
no candidate garners more than 50 percent of the vote.

Given Colombia's long history of alternating rule between the Liberal and
Conservative parties, political analysts said they are astonished at the
prospect that Sanin could wind up in the runoff. It would mark a first, not
only for a woman in Colombia, but also for any independent candidate this
century.

``Serpa is suffering from his close association with Samper,'' said
political scientist Ungar.

U.S. officials have quietly expressed glee over Serpa's campaign
misfortunes, with one Clinton administration source warning that relations
between the two countries were to win.

U.S. diplomats have alleged that as a director of Samper's 1994 campaign,
Serpa was directly involved in handling the $6 million in contributions
from drug lords, even though both Samper and Serpa have been cleared of
wrongdoing. 
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Checked-by: Richard Lake