Source: U.S. Newswire Pubdate: 11 Jul 1998 Note: This piece is presented in two parts. This is Part 2 of 2 TRANSCRIPT OF PRESS BRIEFING BY TRAVIS ON RADIO ADDRESS [Continued from Part 1] Let's consider now how drug epidemics can vary by geographic location and subpopulation and how local knowledge of substance abuse trends can be useful for crafting an intervention. Methamphetamine remains a problem primarily in the western United States. The green bars that you see are almost exclusively found on the left side of the map, and the green bars represent methamphetamine. San Diego, where nearly 40 percent of the adult males and females combined tested positive for methamphetamine, has been extraordinarily hard hit. In fact, methamphetamine is now the most prevalent drug among arrestees in San Diego, surpassing that of both cocaine and marijuana. City and county leaders in San Diego responded to this problem by developing a cross-agency task force to address methamphetamine in their community. The ADAM data were a critical component to the development of this response and to monitoring ongoing progress. Other sites with substantial fractions of arrestees testing positive for meth include San Jose at about 18 percent, Portland and Phoenix at about 16 percent, and Omaha at 10 percent. These levels are near or exceed the previous peaks recorded in 1994 and 1995. In addition, methamphetamine remains primarily a problem among white arrestees and among female arrestees. There are some sites where the overall methamphetamine rate is very low, but the level among whites and among females has become notable, including Atlanta, where six percent; Chicago, where three percent; and St. Louis, where three percent of the whites have tested positive for methamphetamine. Since meth use is found primarily among whites and females, these are examples of subpopulations that must be carefully monitored to assess the geographic spread of a drug problem both within and across communities. In summary, these findings in this chart suggest that drug use patterns among arrestees are diverse and locally specific. These findings reinforce the need to be able to monitor the drug use problems at the local level, to provide policymakers with specific guidance about how their programs and interventions are succeeding. Over the coming years, we will have the opportunity to test for a wider range of substances at our sites, and in certain subpopulations. And with these advances, we will improve our ability to help communities understand their specific drug problems and consequently, to develop appropriate community-specific responses. Thank you. Q The release here says that the study shows that in 9 of 23 cities, the number of arrestees testing positive remain the same or decrease. So, in the majority, in other words, the testing is increasing. Secondly, how would you compare the increase in opiate testing with the decrease in cocaine? I mean, are these offsetting each other -- is the problem still the same level, just different drugs? MR. TRAVIS: The first comment you made is sort of the overall number of individual who test positive, is that up or down? There's some small number - -- nine cities where, overall, that number is down. The rest is -- or holding constant -- the rest is up. So we measure for any drug that's in the system, and so we -- that finding looks at any or any multiple, of drugs. So the general statement is that there's some that are going up and some that are going down in terms of any drug. The second question is about substitution effects, whether there are changes from one population that is at one point in time using drug A to drug B is complicated, because we find that with some drugs -- for example, the methamphetamine numbers that we are reporting that is, in fact, a very different population, so that the presence of methamphetamine, we're finding, is more often in whites and more often in females than for cocaine or heroin or other drugs. There's clearly some multiple drug use, there is clearly some substitution -- we don't know exactly how much -- but overall, we're finding differences in the populations that are testing positive for different drugs. Q But it's not possible to conclude in this data whether the drug problem is getting worse or better in terms of -- MR. TRAVIS: I think the clear implication of the ADAM report is that there are different drug problems; they're different by type of drug and they're different by locality. If you look at the use of cocaine, particularly crack cocaine, this is clearly an area where there has been significant change in a positive direction in a large number of particularly large cities across the country with very beneficial effects. The numbers that we show in Manhattan, for example, where, as we know, there is a near miracle in terms of crime reduction there, show that the levels of crack use have been going down particularly in the younger population, and our report shows that the older population is now becoming the more predominant drug using population for crack cocaine. On the other hand, the meth problem is going in a direction that causes concern. So the announcement today of assistance for local law enforcement is bringing some much-needed relief to those police agencies because the methamphetamine problem is going up. So different drug problems in different communities. Q Since fads and trends often start in the west and go east, including fads and trends in drugs, should there be a national concern about meth usage in the rest of the country since it is so high in places like San Diego now? MR. TRAVIS: We're not showing levels of methamphetamine use in the eastern cities; we are showing it in some of the midwestern cities. I'll have to ask Jack whether it's gone up in those midwestern cities or not. Q Well, he said it was very high in San Diego, for instance. MR. TRAVIS: It's clearly very high, disproportionately high in the western, southwestern cities where we're testing. Q Since these trends often move from west to east, I'm asking you is, is there concern about meth gaining in popularity in other cities from west to east. MR. TRAVIS: The concern that we hear from law enforcement and from communities around the country is both that concern, that it's moving from where it's now, in some cases, the predominant drug, as in San Diego within our population, to midwestern cities. But there's also a very real concern about the spread of methamphetamine use in rural communities. And we don't now test for levels of methamphetamine use in rural communities, but the new program will allow us to do that. Q Is that because it's so easy to manufacture? MR. TRAVIS: It is easy to manufacture. Why it's picking up in rural communities, I think we need to know a lot more about that. Let me just ask Jack if he can add to that. DR. RILEY: Only that I think we might begin to develop some additional information on potential spread to the eastern United States as we bring on the 12 new cites that are identified on the cover of this year's report. But when I spoke about Atlanta, Chicago and St. Louis, which are the easternmost sites, those numbers, while relatively significant among the white offender population in those cities, represent a small number of individuals. So, to date, I don't think we're seeing any compelling evidence that methamphetamine is spreading eastward, only that it has a very solid hold in the western United States. Q Do you know why it is that these communities have such different usages of the various drugs? Is it that the supply of methamphetamine is great in the southwest, or is it that tastes vary in drugs just like they do in food - -- they have Philly cheese steaks in Philadelphia and tacos in San Diego. What's the reason? MR. TRAVIS: Well, in terms of methamphetamine production, there is good law enforcement evidence that much of the production of methamphetamine is connected to activities south of the border in Mexico. So I think that there is sort of an international issue there that General McCaffrey is very concerned about as well as Administrator Constantine. I think some drug epidemics come and go. That's certainly what's happening with crack. And they take hold in places in some places and not in others. The good news that we've talked about in terms of the crack use shows that there is also an intergenerational difference in terms of these use patterns. So that we're seeing younger people who are now coming of the age where they might engage in risky behaviors, including drug use, including crack cocaine use, who are using at much lower rates than their slightly older brothers or brothers' and sisters' friends. In the research literature, this is called sort of the "big brother" syndrome, where the younger brother looks at what's happening to his older brother, who is now either in jail or a crackhead or engaged in some risky and unproductive behavior, and says, I don't want that to be me. So we have not only these regional differences but these generational differences in terms of drug epidemics. And part of what we believe is happening with the crack epidemic is this combination of very effective law enforcement -- law enforcement, problem-solving policing has figured out how to deal much more effectively with the violence associated with crack markets -- and a different message that's being perceived and acted upon by younger people in terms of that very risky behavior. Q Could you repeat, is there any correlation between the type of drug use and the type of crime committed? DR. RILEY: We executed the study at the National Institute of Justice, published last year, looking at homicide trends in eight cities across the United States, six of which are cities that are part of this network. And in cases where both the homicide trends were declining and the homicide trends were increasing, there is relatively clear correlation between that homicide trend and the percentage of homicides and the percentage of adult males testing positive for cocaine. We can't distinguish in the testing between powder cocaine and crack cocaine, but we do know from our self-report information that most of those individuals are, in fact, crack users rather than powder cocaine users. And so -- Q But it hasn't been taken beyond that level? DR. RILEY: We've also extended that analysis to the other 17 cities that are part of the system, and again, that same relationship holds. But as far as relationship to other types of violent crime, that type of analysis was a little more difficult. Homicide was chosen because you have effective reporting; it's very easy to find a victim and the counts and the quality of the information on the homicide are much clearer. Q But there's no cross-reference between a test for marijuana or methamphetamine and robbery or -- DR. RILEY: No, we tested methamphetamine, marijuana and heroin, or the opiate class, against homicide rates. There was some correlation between heroin and homicide rates, but it turns out that a lot of heroin users are poly-drug users, including testing positive for cocaine. People that test positive only for opiates, not for cocaine, there is no relationship. Q With methamphetamine use growing in the white and female population, does that correspond to a growth in arrests among whites and females, or are the arrest rates the same, it's just more of them have used drugs? DR. RILEY: I don't think our data are showing changes in underlying arrest rates. What we typically get is approximately 20 percent of the individuals in any given jurisdiction are arrested on drug charges. So they could be arrested on a cocaine charge, they could be arrested on a methamphetamine charge. The other 80 percent of the offenders are in there for a variety of other charges -- prostitution, property offenses, and so forth. So the mix of people that we interviewing as part of this program is probably not changing. How that translates into -- Q -- just as many women and just as many whites as always, -- they're not going up? DR. RILEY: Correct. I believe so, but whether the underlying arrest patterns in those communities are changing, I have less information at this point. Q Did you add together all the arrests in all the cities and come up with a percentage of positive results as an aggregate? MR. TRAVIS: A methodological question. DR. RILEY: The answer is no, we don't do that at this point. I would venture -- Q Why not? DR. RILEY: It's relatively difficult to be able to compare cross-communities. To give one example, at this point, what we call our catchment area, which is the underlying population of arrestees, in some communities, it's a city; in other communities, it's a county; in some communities, we're only one of the jails that might be in the county. As we progress methodologically through the next couple of years, I think we'll be able to provide that picture. But then you get into problems of, particularly with lower-level offenses, whether the underlying offenses that you're putting together are truly comparable across jurisdictions. MR. TRAVIS: I think the idea of using these data to create a single national picture is a tempting idea. I understand that. But I think the power of what we've been able to demonstrate through this research report is that, in fact, there are very different pictures of drug abuse patterns and trends and problems at the local level. So the national data have some value. I'm not discounting the importance of understanding at the national level whether marijuana use, cocaine use, heroin use, methamphetamine use is up in an aggregate sense. But to say that heroin use is up three percent doesn't really help a police commissioner in Baltimore, where they have a very significant heroin problem and wants to know whether the heroin problem in Baltimore is moving in the right direction. So it may be possible, methodologically, at some point, to aggregate those data and control for the variables. But I think the policy picture that is very evident and clear and comes in focus when you look at the ADAM data is, in effect, there is no single national drug problem. We have lots of very different local drug problems, and if we give this information about those local problems to those local communities on an ongoing basis with regular feedback as to whether they're making a difference, whether community policing strategy is working, whether the drug court is working, whether the epidemic is waning or waxing, this information is very important and not previously available to local communities. Q Is it fair to conclude, then, that there's limits on how broad a national drug policy can be? If we've got all of these different local problems, then a national role would seem to be limited in how it -- MR. TRAVIS: Well, I think, in fact, the other two announcements that the President is making tomorrow that are expansion by nearly 40 percent of the number of drug courts and the award of $5 million of grants to local law enforcement agencies in the communities that are affected by the methamphetamine problem, that type of federal assistance coming out of this administration is exactly the type of support that is needed for communities to be able to do something about their drug problems at their local levels. So a methamphetamine grant to a city that is plagued by methamphetamine problems is -- that is real assistance from the national level, and that's the role that the federal government is trying to play. MR. TOIV: Great. Thank you. END 1:45 P.M. EDT - -0- /U.S. Newswire 202-347-2770/ 07/11 10:15 Copyright 1998, U.S. Newswire - --- Checked-by: Mike Gogulski