Pubdate: Sun, 29 Aug 1999 Source: Denver Post (CO) Copyright: 1999 The Denver Post Contact: http://www.denverpost.com/ Author: Morgan Smith NOTE: Author served as director of the Colorado International Trade Office from 1988 to 1999 21ST CENTURY HOLDS CHALLENGES FOR COLORADO Should John Elway be ranked ahead of Joe Montana? Who are the 50 greatest athletes of the 20th century? When will the citizen of the century be named? All these end-of-the-century ratings make fascinating reading but what about the century to come? Who's talking about the future and the extraordinary challenges, changes and issues that it will bring. Looking at the international scene, let me mention one issue that I predict will come crashing down on us and two opportunities for Colorado to play a leadership role. Drugs and crime. Colombia, a huge country larger than Texas and California combined, is the world's major source of cocaine and an increasingly important supplier of heroin. Forty percent of its land mass is now under the control of guerrilla armies, principally the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN). These armies are heavily armed, well equipped, financed by drug money and gaining power. In July five American soldiers were killed in a plane crash there. It still isn't clear whether the plane encountered bad weather or was shot down by guerrillas. The wife of Col. James Hiett, the commander of the 200 American military anti-drug personnel in Colombia, has been arrested on drug charges. Our "drug czar," Gen. Barry McCaffrey visited Colombia in July. His expressions of surprise at the enormous increase in coca production made you wonder how well-informed he has been. On Aug. 13, two gunmen assassinated Jaime Garzon, Colombia's most popular satirist as well as a strong promoter of the peace process. On Aug. 15, the Rev. Jose de Jesus Quintero, the bishop of Tibu, was kidnapped for the second time in two years. On Aug. 18, relatives of 382 Colombian police and soldiers who are being held hostage were summoned to a meeting with leftist guerillas where they were told that no one would be released until 450 jailed guerrillas were released. President Andres Pastrana's peace initiative seems to be falling apart, and violence is increasing again. In short, Colombia is in danger of collapsing as a country. The driving force is the money behind the drug traffic and the profits that can be gained from drug users in this country. Can this problem be solved militarily? The land area controlled by these guerrilla armies is roughly equal to Colorado and Nebraska combined. To put it another way, it's 40 times the size of Kosovo. Mexico is the second major supplier of drugs to the United States, and it too is facing a period of increasing instability. The year 2000 is a presidential election year, and election years are always unstable because members of the outgoing administration often tend to use their last months in office for self-enrichment. Next year could be particularly disruptive for two reasons. First, the PRI, the party that has ruled Mexico for decades, could well lose to a combined PAN and PRD candidate. This will cause an even greater-than-normal last-minute scramble for riches from outgoing PRI functionaries. Second, the role of drugs is increasing. On June 7, a very popular talk show personality, Francisco "Paco" Stanley, was shot to death in Mexico City. It turned out that he was carrying cocaine. On Aug. 15, Mexico's drug czar, Mariano Herran Salvatti, and his wife were attacked by four men on motorcycles as they drove away from a Mexico City restaurant. About 40 shots were fired but neither of them was hurt. Is the destabilization of other countries sufficient reason to take a fresh look at our drug policy? Will the George W. Bush cocaine debate bring about that discussion? What about the comments of New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, TV anchorman Hugh Downs and District Judge John Kane about the need to look at decriminalization? Is this just too hot a topic for an elected official? In the mid-'70s, then-state Rep. Mike Strang from Carbondale introduced a bill to legalize marijuana. Strang refused to allow other legislators to co-sponsor his bill because he thought it was so politically volatile, yet he was subsequently elected to Congress from the 3rd District, hardly a bastion of liberalism. - --- MAP posted-by: Derek Rea