Afghanistan is likely to retain a central role in the global drugs trade, argues Mark Galeotti in this World Today essay. But even a miracle of western statecraft would only lead to Afghanistan's impoverished neighbours seizing a greater share of this lucrative trade.

Afghanistan's central role in the global narcotics trade will outlast bin Laden and the Taliban. A powerful and flexible network of traffickers, traders, producers and processors operates across factional, ethnic and national borders with virtual impunity, and will play a key role in shaping the post-intervention order. But the impact on the streets of Europe and the global drugs market is likely to be minimal. Afghanistan provides three-quarters of the world's opiates - the basis for heroin. Production doubled through the 1990s thanks to a malign combination of poverty and lawlessness, suitable local climate, a central location and, above all, local figures and factions that eagerly embraced its economic opportunities.

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If the last century was dominated by cold wars, then the struggle against organised and transnational crime will be a defining theme of the next. To launch this regular feature, Dr Mark Galeotti considers the evolution of the transnational criminal environment.

THE TURN-OVER of the global criminal economy is roughly estimated to be US$1 trillion a year, of which narcotics may account for about half. Around 4% of the world's population takes illegal drugs - from inhaled solvents to the Asian betel nut. Up to half a trillion dollars are laundered through the world's financial systems each year. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that this money laundering has cost member states over $120 billion per year, with the USA accounting for $76 billion.

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