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Pubdate: Wed, 19 Sep 2001 Source: Reuters (Wire) Copyright: 2001 Reuters Limited Author: Sitaraman Shankar, Reuters U.N. OFFICIAL: OPIUM CUTS MAY HIT AFGHAN CAPABILITY BOMBAY, India (Reuters) - Afghanistan military capability could be limited by the ruling Taliban's decision to stop cultivating opium, a senior official of the United Nations International Drug Control Program told Reuters Wednesday. "We expect Afghan opium production to be down to less than 200 tons this year from 3,276 tons in 2000," Sandeep Chawla, the UNDCP's chief of research told Reuters in an interview from his headquarters in Vienna. "Until last year, Afghanistan was the world's largest producer of heroin, which is made from opium. rebel-controlled north, but it's traditionally been less than a tenth of total Afghan output," said Chawla. Smuggling the drug to western markets was seen as a major source of funding for the Taliban, currently under pressure to hand over Saudi-born dissident Osama bin Laden, suspected in last week's attacks on New York and Washington. Chawla said Afghanistan began cutting back opium production in the summer of 2000, following a Taliban view that it was unIslamic. But it also cut off a crucial source of funding that has undermined its military capabilities. Islam bans the use of liquor and all intoxicants. "Opium cultivation played a pivotal role in the Afghan economy in the nineties, and funded resistance to Soviet occupation," Chawla said. "Now Afghanistan's capability (to resist attack) is limited, unless other sources of financing like smuggling arms and other contraband, or the legitimate economy were to pick up," he said. The UNDCP, which monitors the illicit drug trade across the world and carries out surveys in Afghanistan, believes opium production has also been hit by a severe drought. In 2001, land used for growing opium in Afghanistan fell by 90 percent to around 19,768 acres, Chawla said. The country's main opium cultivating areas are Helmand in the south and Nangarhar in the east, he said. The bulk of the heroin produced from opium is smuggled along the Balkan route -- through Iran, Turkey and southern Europe to markets in the West. The central Asian route is growing rapidly, while smuggling across the border into Pakistan and India has been reduced, he said. Stockpile? Afghanistan's decline leaves Myanmar as the largest producer. The UNDCP estimates that last year Myanmar made 1,087 tons of illicit opium, roughly a third of Afghanistan's production, but valued at prices of $232 a kilogram against $28 a kilogram for Afghan opium. Chawla said Afghan farmers were paid $91 million for their production in 2000 and less than $60 million in 2001, helped only by a ten-fold increase in prices. But these numbers may not tell the whole story, he cautioned. "It's difficult to estimate exactly how much Afghanistan made from opium and its derivatives. For example, heroin sells for as much as $500 a kg in some markets," he said. "There are certainly possibilities that Afghanistan can start growing opium again if the situation demands it, but that's not a decision that yields results immediately," Chawla said. "Planting takes place in autumn and harvesting in spring, so there's a long wait," he said. "Now the questions center on how much of a stockpile of opium the Afghans are sitting on," he said. - --- MAP posted-by: Beth